Table 1.
Studies of demand for and supply of physicians in Thailand from 1972 to 2004
| Year | Organizations | Methodology | Key results and recommendations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 1972 |
National Economic and Social Development Board |
Physician to population ratio |
Need more physicians to meet the target of one doctor to 5,000 population |
| 1979 |
Coordinating Committee for Medical and Health Affairs |
Service targeted approach |
Thailand needs 200 more doctors per annum to meet the demand for rural health development project. |
| 1986 |
The Thai Medical Council |
Service targeted approach |
Predict a shortage of 4,286 physicians by 2000 |
| 1986 |
National Economic and Social Development Board |
Trend projection |
Adequate supply by the year 2000 |
| 1992 |
Health Planning Division, the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) |
Physician to population ratio |
Increase production in response to increased demand due to economic growth, need 340 more doctors per annum |
| 1994 |
Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, the MoPH |
Combination of physician to population ratio, service targeted and health demand approach |
Increase production to fill in the expanded rural health services. A Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors was decided by the Cabinet to produce 300 more doctors per year |
| 1995-1996 |
Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, Praboromrachanok Institute for Human Resource Development, the MoPH and Health Systems Research Institute |
Combination of physician to population ratio and service targeted and health demand approach |
Adequate supply by 2015 |
| 1996 |
Thailand Development Research Institute |
Health demand approach |
Adequate supply by 2020 |
| 1996 |
Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH |
Cohort analysis, annual loss rate method and modified physician to population ratio |
The supply of physicians by the year 2020 will be 44,028 (using high-loss scenario) to 47,519 (using low-loss scenario) |
| 2001 |
The 7th National Conference on Medical Education |
Health demand approach and physician to population ratio |
Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,500 population by 2021 |
| 2004 | Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH | Physician to population ratio | Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,800 population; 6,000 additional more physicians should be produced in 2006 |
Sources: Tida Suwannakij (1996); Thaksaphol Thammarangsri (2005).