Table 1.

Lead times (ℓ) and HRs when actual diagnosis occurs at a PSA of m(a_A)=10.0 ng/mL and early diagnosis occurs at a PSA threshold of m(a_E)=2.5 or 4.0 ng/mL under hazard functions h₂ (using PSA only) and h₃ (using PSA and age). Results assume an exponential survival model

Hazard function	θ2			m(aE)	ℓ	HR	SE	95% CI
Overall
h2	0.10	0.002		2.50	13.86	0.99	0.00	0.98, 0.99
	0.10	0.002		4.00	9.16	0.99	0.00	0.98, 1.00
	0.20	0.002		2.50	6.93	0.99	0.00	0.98, 0.99
	0.20	0.002		4.00	4.58	0.99	0.00	0.98, 1.00
h3	0.10	0.002	0.03	2.50	13.86	0.68	0.10	0.50, 0.90
	0.10	0.002	0.03	4.00	9.16	0.77	0.08	0.63, 0.93
	0.20	0.002	0.03	2.50	6.93	0.82	0.06	0.70, 0.94
	0.20	0.002	0.03	4.00	4.58	0.87	0.04	0.79, 0.96
Low grade
h2	0.10	0.002		2.50	13.86	0.99	0.01	0.97, 1.00
	0.10	0.002		4.00	9.16	0.99	0.01	0.98, 1.00
	0.20	0.002		2.50	6.93	0.99	0.01	0.97, 1.00
	0.20	0.002		4.00	4.58	0.99	0.01	0.98, 1.00
h3	0.10	0.002	0.04	2.50	13.86	0.59	0.15	0.36, 0.93
	0.10	0.002	0.04	4.00	9.16	0.70	0.11	0.51, 0.95
	0.20	0.002	0.04	2.50	6.93	0.76	0.09	0.59, 0.96
	0.20	0.002	0.04	4.00	4.58	0.83	0.07	0.71, 0.97
High grade
h2	0.10	0.015		2.50	13.86	0.89	0.05	0.80, 0.99
	0.10	0.015		4.00	9.16	0.91	0.04	0.84, 0.99
	0.20	0.015		2.50	6.93	0.89	0.05	0.80, 0.99
	0.20	0.015		4.00	4.58	0.91	0.04	0.84, 0.99
h3	0.10	0.014	−0.02	2.50	13.86	1.25	0.32	0.74, 2.00
	0.10	0.014	−0.02	4.00	9.16	1.14	0.19	0.80, 1.56
	0.20	0.014	−0.02	2.50	6.93	1.05	0.14	0.80, 1.36
	0.20	0.014	−0.02	4.00	4.58	1.02	0.09	0.85, 1.21