Table 2.

Regression equations for death in each age class. β are posterior means and their 95% credible interval given on the logit scale. These are transformed into baseline death rate (intercept) and a proportionate change in probability of death due to a unit change in the variable (β′).

	β ′	β	95% CI		β ′	β	95% CI
	0–900 days				0–180 days
intercept	0.149	−1.744	−2.010	−1.479*	0.048	−2.997	−3.285	−2.722*
male	1.129	0.144	0.013	0.273*	1.021	0.021	−0.127	0.172
age in cohort	0.998	−0.002	−0.004	0.000	0.996	−0.004	−0.007	−0.002*
primiparous	1.236	0.254	−0.036	0.541	1.288	0.267	−0.061	0.587
rep. previous	1.151	0.167	−0.037	0.373	1.178	0.172	−0.065	0.421
age	0.981	−0.023	−0.057	0.011	0.941	−0.063	−0.102	−0.026*
age2	1.006	0.007	0.002	0.011*	1.015	0.015	0.011	0.020*
exit during	2.691	1.340	1.160	1.531*	12.110	3.303	2.949	3.673*
exit prior
	0–30 days				30–180 days
intercept	0.029	−3.514	−3.869	−3.169*	0.020	−3.881	−4.287	−3.505*
male	0.934	−0.071	−0.245	0.113	1.245	0.224	0.012	0.443*
age in cohort	0.994	−0.006	−0.009	−0.003*	0.999	−0.001	−0.005	0.002
primiparous	1.151	0.145	−0.260	0.522	1.549	0.449	−0.011	0.917
rep. previous	1.168	0.160	−0.124	0.443	1.182	0.171	−0.175	0.531
age	0.956	−0.046	−0.092	0.000	0.947	−0.055	−0.111	−0.003*
age2	1.015	0.015	0.010	0.021*	1.010	0.010	0.003	0.016*
exit during	26.372	4.682	4.004	5.401*	14.814	3.031	2.562	3.554*
exit prior					5.515	1.805	−0.123	3.527
	180–360 days				360–540 days
intercept	0.033	−3.366	−3.706	−3.042*	0.025	−3.654	−4.119	−3.221*
male	1.091	0.090	−0.094	0.294	0.966	−0.036	−0.252	0.186
age in cohort	1.006	0.006	0.003	0.009*	0.993	−0.007	−0.011	−0.003*
primiparous	0.950	−0.053	−0.493	0.389	1.412	0.356	−0.161	0.851
rep. previous	1.171	0.164	−0.154	0.480	1.222	0.206	−0.142	0.560
age	0.963	−0.039	−0.087	0.009	1.032	0.033	−0.028	0.094
age2	1.006	0.006	−0.000	0.012	0.997	−0.004	−0.012	0.005
exit during	3.351	1.294	0.778	1.793*	0.659	−0.425	−1.101	0.233
exit prior	2.818	1.101	0.415	1.809*	0.889	−0.121	−0.944	0.622
	540–720 days				720–900 days
intercept	0.024	−3.695	−4.265	−3.201*	0.007	−4.903	−5.984	−4.037*
male	0.803	−0.224	−0.526	0.069	1.058	0.057	−0.330	0.439
age in cohort	1.001	0.001	−0.004	0.006	0.995	−0.005	−0.012	0.001
primiparous	1.368	0.322	−0.306	0.965	1.174	0.162	−0.753	1.081
rep. previous	0.808	−0.218	−0.640	0.219	1.135	0.128	−0.420	0.709
age	1.034	0.035	−0.043	0.114	1.069	0.067	−0.032	0.166
age2	0.994	−0.006	−0.017	0.005	0.995	−0.005	−0.018	0.007
exit during	2.071	0.755	−0.042	1.494	2.808	1.046	0.168	1.858*
exit prior	1.142	0.136	−0.596	0.796	2.072	0.736	0.045	1.442*