Table 2. Transition probabilities (per patient, per 6-month cycle) related to first-line treatment and second-line treatment and probabilities of AIDS event.

Health state	CD4 (cell count /mL)	HIV RNA (copies/mL)	Transition ProbabilitiesLPV/r (first line)†	Transition Probabilities ATV+r 1 (first line)†	Transition Probabilities ATV+r 2* (first line)†	Transition Probabilities (second line)†	AIDS probabilities
1	> 350	< 50	0.70721	0.77487	0.7232	0.49504	0.0009
2	> 350	≥ 50	0.86111	0.71106	0.86980	0.60277	0.0162
3	201–350	< 50	0.38737	0.29664	0.40847	0.27118	0.0104
4	201–350	≥ 50	0.45253	0.36481	0.47386	0.31675	0.0585
5	50–200	< 50	0.05202	0.08941	0.05719	0.0364	0.0212
6	50–200	≥ 50	0.13132	0.09041	0.14281	0.09191	0.2276
7	< 50	< 50	0.01623	0.00485	0.01791	0.01134	0.6934
8	< 50	≥ 50	0.02844	0.02175	0.03135	0.01988	0.9435

^†diagonal elements of transition matrix expressing the probability of remaining in the same health state after one Markov cycle (semester)

^*transitions based on a 19% lesser likelihood of transitioning to a state with greater viral load than when receiving LPV/r