Table 4.

Correlation of population variables and epidemic statistics as seen and predicted by the model.

Full dataset
Epidemic statistic	Population variable	Correlation observed in real dataa		Correlation predicted by the modela
		r	P	r	P
Worldwide
Peak week	Air traffic to/from North America	-0.30	0.042	-0.30	0.044
Peak week	Longitudeb	0.27	0.071	0.42	0.003
Peak week	Latitudeb	-0.15	0.317	0.02	0.882
Peak week	Vaccine uptake	-0.37	0.069	-0.38	0.060
Attack rate reduction, %	Vaccine uptake			0.73	< 0.001
European countries only
Peak week	Intra-EU air traffic	-0.15	0.391	-0.48	0.003
Peak week	Air traffic to/from North America	-0.26	0.151	-0.37	0.003
Peak week	Longitudeb	0.54	< 0.001	0.74	< 0.001
Peak week	Latitudeb	-0.32	0.07	-0.23	0.178
Peak week	Vaccine uptake	-0.29	0.204	-0.28	0.212
Attack rate reduction, %	Vaccine uptake			0.69	< 0.001

^aValues of the Pearson's correlation coefficient, r, along with the corresponding P value, were measured between the epidemic statistics and the population variables of the countries appearing in Figure 5.

^bLongitude and latitude are those of the capital city of the country.