Table 3.
Observed versus predicted cases in Social Epidemiology of Psychoses in East Anglia study for all clinically relevant psychoses, 16–35 years*
| EIS | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Predicted (95% PI) | Predicted (95% PI) | Predicted (95% PI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||
| Overall total, 16–35 years | 522 | 641.2 (586.0, 696.1) | 468.5 (422.0, 518.0) | 474.7 (429.0, 522.0) | 487.5 (441.0, 535.0) |
| CAMEO North | 55 | 84.7 (66.0, 106.0) | 68.5 (52.0, 87.0) | 67.8 (51.0, 86.0) | 70.2 (53.0, 90.0) |
| CAMEO South | 134 | 163.6 (135.0, 192.0) | 105.5 (84.0, 129.0) | 111.7 (89.0, 134.0) | 110.9 (90.0, 132.0) |
| West Norfolk | 26 | 29.2 (18.0, 41.0) | 23.0 (13.0, 35.0) | 22.0 (12.0, 32.0) | 23.4 (14.0, 34.0) |
| Central Norfolk | 120 | 162.6 (136.0, 191.0) | 122.6 (99.0, 148.0) | 123.0 (100.0, 149.0) | 128.3 (104.0, 152.0) |
| Great Yarmouth and Waveney | 60 | 49.1 (34.0, 65.0) | 41.6 (28.0, 55.0) | 39.9 (27.0, 53.0) | 42.9 (30.0, 57.0) |
| Suffolk | 127 | 151.9 (126.0, 178.0) | 107.4 (85.0, 128.0) | 110.3 (88.0, 133.0) | 111.7 (90.0, 136.0) |
| Overall total, 36–64 years | – | 332.2 (292.0, 373.0) | 244.0 (213.0, 276.0) | 248.6 (216.0, 280.0) | 256.3 (228.0, 291.0) |
| Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | |||
| Overall total, 16–35 years | 522 | 477.1 (428.0, 523.0) | 508.5 (459.0, 559.0) | 715.6 (664.0, 769.0) | |
| CAMEO North | 55 | 69.1 (52.0, 88.0) | 64.5 (48.0, 82.0) | 92.1 (74.0, 111.0) | |
| CAMEO South | 134 | 100.7 (79.0, 123.0) | 131.1 (108.0, 157.0) | 169.0 (144.0, 195.0) | |
| West Norfolk | 26 | 24.7 (16.0, 35.0) | 22.3 (13.0, 33.0) | 35.8 (25.0, 48.0) | |
| Central Norfolk | 120 | 128.2 (105.0, 153.0) | 132.5 (108.0, 157.0) | 187.7 (161.0, 215.0) | |
| Great Yarmouth and Waveney | 60 | 47.7 (35.0, 63.0) | 38.0 (26.0, 51.0) | 59.1 (44.0, 74.0) | |
| Suffolk | 127 | 106.6 (86.0, 128.0) | 120.0 (96.0, 143.0) | 172.1 (147.0, 198.0) | |
| Overall total, 36–64 years | – | 249.7 (221.0, 284.0) | 262.9 (233.0, 297.0) | 1175.4 (1109.0, 1243.0) |
*Numbers in italics denote where the observed count fell within 95% prediction interval (95% PI) for people aged 16–35 years. Observed data for people aged 36–64 years in the validation sample were not available.
Model 1: Age group, sex, their interaction and ethnicity.
Model 2: Model 1+IMD.
Model 3: Model 1+extent of deprivation.
Model 4: Model 1+income deprivation.
Model 5: Model 1+employment deprivation.
Model 6: Model 1+population density.
Model 7: Department of health uniform figure for EIS of 15 new cases per 100 000 people/year.