TABLE 1.

Mean day of detection relative to public health response for a false alarm rate of 4 per year, by algorithm and outbreak size

Outbreak size	DSMA*	ARIMA† (1,0,1)	EWMA§ 0.05	EWMA 0.20	CUSUM¶- EWMA 0.05	CUSUM- EWMA 0.20
0.10%	−16.19	−15.4	−13.4	−6.11	−13.48	−11.43
0.50%	−17.81	−15.44	−13.45	−6.32	−13.52	−11.78
1.00%	−20.66	−16	−13.57	−6.33	−16.19	−12.45
5.00%	−24.76	−23.14	−22.89	−17.52	−23.41	−22.66
10.00%	−26.22	−24.74	−24.67	−22.2	−24.67	−24.18

^*Day-specific moving average.

^†Autoregressive integrated moving average.

^§Exponentially weighted moving average.

^¶Cumulative sum.