Table 3.
Estimated impact of smoking on mortality: Hazard regression
|
|
Women | Men | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 |
| 35–39 (ref.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 40–44 | 1.8 (1.4 – 2.2) | 1.8 (1.2 – 2.3) | 1.8 (1.5 – 2.2) | 1.7 (1.3 – 2.2) |
| 45–49 | 2.7 (2.2 – 3.3) | 2.7 (1.9 – 3.5) | 2.8 (2.3 – 3.5) | 2.6 (2.0 – 3.3) |
| 50–54 | 4.1 (3.4 – 5.0) | 4.1 (3.0 – 5.2) | 4.3 (3.5 – 5.2) | 3.9 (3.0 – 5.0) |
| 55–59 | 6.6 (5.5 – 7.9) | 6.5 (4.6 – 8.3) | 6.7 (5.5 – 8.1) | 6.1 (4.8 – 7.8) |
| 60–64 | 10.7 (9.0 – 12.8) | 10.7 (7.9 – 13.8) | 10.8 (9.0 – 13.1) | 9.8 (7.7 – 12.5) |
| 65–69 | 16.7 (14.0 – 19.8) | 17.3 (13.3 – 22.8) | 17.2 (14.3 – 20.6) | 15.1 (11.8 – 19.2) |
| 70–74 | 25.7 (21.6 – 30.3) | 27.6 (20.5 – 35.6) | 26.3 (22.0 – 31.4) | 23.5 (18.5 – 29.9) |
| 75–79 | 40.9 (34.4 – 48.1) | 45.8 (34.8 – 60.1) | 42.2 (35.4 – 50.4) | 39.2 (30.8 – 49.8) |
| 80–84 | 67.1 (57 – 79) | 78.9 (59 – 103) | 68.6 (58 – 82) | 66.7 (53 – 85) |
| 85+ | 138.6 (117 – 163) | 172.4 (130 – 229) | 142.2 (119 – 169) | 146.9 (116 – 187) |
| race/ethnic group
|
||||
| US-born white (ref.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| US-born Mexican | 0.94 (0.88 – 1.00) | 0.99 (0.91 – 1.09) | 0.95 (0.88 – 1.03) | 1.01 (0.92 – 1.10) |
| US-born other | 1.16 (1.02 – 1.31) | 1.12 (0.97 – 1.30) | 1.07 (0.98 – 1.17) | 1.15 (1.01 – 1.29) |
| Foreign-born Mexican | 0.80 (0.74 – 0.86) | 0.96 (0.89 – 1.02) | 0.85 (0.77 – 0.91) | 0.99 (0.89 – 1.10) |
| Foreign-born other | 0.77 (0.70 – 0.84) | 0.88 (0.80 – 0.98) | 0.81 (0.71 – 0.93) | 0.85 (0.73 – 0.96) |
| Smoking
|
||||
| Never smoker (ref.) | -- | -- | ||
| Former smoker | 1.36 (1.31 – 1.40) | 1.34 (1.30 – 1.38) | ||
| Current (0–9 cigs per day) | 1.80 (1.66 – 1.95) | 2.00 (1.82 – 2.20) | ||
| Current (10–19) | 2.10 (1.95 – 2.26) | 2.11 (1.98 – 2.25) | ||
| Current (20–29) | 2.51 (2.36 – 2.66) | 2.51 (2.38 – 2.63) | ||
| Current (30+) | 3.13 (2.88 – 3.40) | 3.13 (2.88 – 3.39) | ||
| Smoking Interactions
|
||||
| Former x US-born Mex. | 1.05 (0.96 – 1.13) | 0.86 (0.70 – 1.08) | ||
| Former x US-born other | 0.93 (0.85 – 1.00) | 1.07 (0.87 – 1.30) | ||
| Former x For.-born Mex. | 1.15 (0.87 – 1.52) | 1.11 (0.97 – 1.24) | ||
| Former x For.-born other. | 0.78 (0.60 – 0.97) | 0.83 (0.73 – 0.97) | ||
|
| ||||
| Constant | 0.000857 | 0.000621 | 0.00172 | 0.00116 |
| N | 155,173 | 155,173 | 119,138 | 119,138 |
Notes: Estimated using hazard regression on data from NHIS smoking supplements 1990 – 2004. Hazard ratios shown. 95% confidence intervals in parentheses. Interactions reflect differences in the mortality risk of former smoking by race/ethnic group. Model 1 includes age and race/ethnic group. Model 2 adds coefficients for smoking status.