Table 2.
Agreement of Baseline, Month 6 and Year 2 Research Diagnosis with 10-year Diagnosis
| Diagnosis (Na) | Kappa | Positive Predictive Value (%) |
Negative Predictive Value (%) |
Sensitivity (%) |
Specificity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schizophrenia (10-year N=234) | |||||
| Baseline to year 10 | 0.47 | 89.2 | 66.8 | 53.0 | 93.6 |
| Month 6 to year 10 | 0.57 | 88.5 | 73.0 | 64.7 | 91.9 |
| Year 2 to year 10 | 0.75 | 95.2 | 82.4 | 78.8 | 96.1 |
| Bipolar disorder (10-year N=113) | |||||
| Baseline to year 10 | 0.65 | 77.8 | 90.3 | 68.1 | 93.8 |
| Month 6 to year 10 | 0.66 | 72.6 | 91.9 | 76.6 | 90.2 |
| Year 2 to year 10 | 0.76 | 79.3 | 95.3 | 85.7 | 92.8 |
| Major depression (10-year N=52) | |||||
| Baseline to year 10 | 0.48 | 45.0 | 95.9 | 69.2 | 89.5 |
| Month 6 to year 10 | 0.53 | 47.0 | 97.5 | 81.2 | 88.7 |
| Year 2 to year 10 | 0.70 | 62.3 | 99.0 | 92.3 | 92.9 |
| Substance-induced (10-year N=33) | |||||
| Baseline to year 10 | 0.37 | 52.4 | 95.1 | 33.3 | 97.7 |
| Month 6 to year 10 | 0.49 | 50.0 | 96.8 | 55.2 | 96.1 |
| Year 2 to year 10 | 0.69 | 71.0 | 97.9 | 71.0 | 97.9 |
| Other (10-year N=38) | |||||
| Baseline to year 10 | 0.13 | 15.3 | 94.7 | 52.6 | 74.3 |
| Month 6 to year 10 | 0.24 | 26.5 | 94.3 | 37.1 | 91.1 |
| Year 2 to year 10 | 0.45 | 46.5 | 95.7 | 52.6 | 94.5 |
NOTE: positive predictive value=prospective consistency; sensitivity=retrospective consistency
a
N = 470 at baseline and 10 years, 438 at 6 months, and 464 at 2 years