Figure 4. Malaria incidence increase at urban health posts in the governance scenario is predicted to be a direct consequence of prevented deforestation.

We depict the relationship between future prevented deforestation under the governance scenario (green line), and the ratio of the expected malaria incidence for each year and city under the governance (GOV) and business-as-usual (BAU) future LULC scenarios (red line) (i.e., ), averaged across all cities. The red polygon represents the 95% credible interval of the average ratio.