Table 1. Model Assumption.
| Variables | Baseline Value, % | Reference |
| Baseline characteristics | ||
| HBeAg-postivie: HBeAg-negative (% of population) | 60%∶40% | [2] |
| Ishak fibrosis stage F2∼F4: >F4a | 83%∶17% | [2] |
| Treatment compliance rate | 74%b | [38] |
| Annual discount rate | 5%b | HIRA 2010 |
| Annual disease progression rates – HBeAg-positive and –negative (unconrolled : controlled viral load) | ||
| Progression from F0/F1 to F2/F3/F4 | 0.5%c∶0.0%d | [9], [10] |
| Progression form F2/F3/F4 to >F4/cirrhosis | 7.0%c∶1.9%d | [9], [10] |
| Progression from>F4/cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis | 3.1%c∶0.8%d | [9], [10] |
| Progression from decompensated cirrhosis to liver transplant | 2.6%c∶0.7%d | [9], [10] |
| Progression from liver transplant to post liver transplant | 100.0%c∶100.0%d | Assumption |
| Progression from HCC to liver transplant | 30.0%c∶30.0%d | [10] |
| F0/F1 to HCC | 0.5%c∶0.1%d | [11] |
| F2/F3/F4 to HCC | 1.0%c∶0.2%d | [9] |
| >F4/cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis to HCC | 2.2%c∶2.2%d | [11] |
| Decompensated>F4 /cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis to HCC | 2.2%c∶2.2%d | [11] |
| Annual death rates | ||
| Year 1 to 30(Age 35 to 64)e | 0.1–1.19% | WHO 2009 |
| >F4/cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis to death | 4.9%e | [12] |
| Decompensated>F4/cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis to death | 19.0%e | [4] |
| HCC to death | 23.0%e | [9], [10] |
| Liver transplant to death | 13.0%e | [13] |
| Post-liver transplant to death | 2.5%e | [13] |
| Annual histological improvement rates - on treatment – HBeAg-positive and –negative (uncontrolled:controlled viral load) | ||
| Improvement from F2/F3/F4 to F0F1 | 0.0%c∶18.5%d | [25] |
| Improvement from >F4 /cirrhosis/advanced fibrosis to F2/F3/F4 | 0.0%c∶20.0%d | [25] |
a
No patients entered the model in Ishak fibrosis stages F0/F1 or decompensated cirrhosis/HCC/liver transplant/post-liver transplant.
b
Sensitivity analysis input range for compliance rate 70%∼90%, for annual discount rate 3%∼7%, and for all other variables ±10% standard deviation.
c
Patients with uncontrolled viral load (HBV DNA level>300 copies/ml).
d
Patients with controlled viral load (HBV DNA level <300 copies/ml).
e
Assumptions for the population as a whole. The probability of death was linked to liver histology and not to viral load.
HBeAg = hepatitis B e antigen; HBsAg = hepatitis B surface antigen, HBV = hepatitis B virus, HCC = hepatocellular carcinoma; CHB = chronic hepatitis B; HIRA = Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service in Korea