Table 3.

Country level covariates, acceptable direction of effect, number of models, and final contribution in estimating IHD mortality in ensemble method

		Male			Female
Covariate	Level	CF*	Rate	Contribution	CF*	Rate	Contribution
Cumulative cigarette consumption (mean 5-year per capita cigarette consumption)48	1	89	139	30%	113	82	49%
Diabetes prevalence46	1	47	0	30%	0	0	0%
Mean body mass index (kg/m2)49	1	73	0	35%	114	0	42%
Mean systolic Blood pressure (mm Hg)	1	50	82	25%	108	64	58%
Mean serum cholesterol (mmol/l)	1	47	57	55%	114	43	67%
Prevalence of smoking (self reported active smoking status)48	1	87	120	61%	104	71	49%
Alcohol consumption (liters per capita)50	2	74	122	11%	110	80	42%
Animal fat consumption (kcal per capita)	2	62	106	10%	0	0	0%
Health system access (unitless)	2	0	46	0%	19	42	4%
Fruit consumption (kcal per capita)51	2	0	109	0%	0	77	0%
PUFA3 consumption (kcal per capita)	2	90	84	18%	81	74	32%
Vegetables consumption (kcal per capita)51	2	30	102	16%	0	64	0%
Milk consumption (kcal per capita)52	2	0	128	0%	13	106	7%
Nut and seed consumption (kcal per capita)53	2	19	101	0%	0	58	0%
Disaster death (rate per 1,000 person-years)54	3	0	0	0%	10	0	3%
Education (years per capita)34,37	3	0	41	0%	63	15	30%
Lag country income (US dollars per capita)34,37	3	16	53	10%	57	20	25%
PUFA6 consumption (kcal per capita)	3	0	20	0%	0	23	0%
Population elevation (% of population dwelling at >1,500 meters)55	3	67	65	22%	84	51	34%
Legume and Pulses consumption (kcal per capita)56	3	27	64	0%	37	35	12%
Red meat consumption (kcal per capita)57,58	3	31	66	6%	24	27	5%
War death (rate per 1,000 person-years)59	3	0	70	0%	37	70	18%
Whole grain consumption (kcal per capita)	3	0	0	0%	0	0	0%

^*CF: Logit of cause fraction as dependent variable in the model