Table 2. Alternative programmes compared.

Reference	Base Comparison Scenario	PrEP Intervention
		PrEP Regimen	Prioritisation	Coverage
Generalised epidemics in southern Africa
Abbas [25]	No PrEP. ART was not modelled.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: general population. By sexual activity: two highest sexual activity groups prioritised. By age: 15–20 y group prioritised.	Percent of the population using PrEP: Optimistic scenario, 75%; Neutral scenario, 50%; Pessimistic scenario, 25%
Pretorius [30]	No PrEP. ART coverage expands at its current rate. ART efficacy: 90% reduction in transmission probability.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: 15–35 y; By age: 15–25 y, or 25–35 y	Percent of women using PrEP: 20%, dropout rate:1.5%
Hallett [28]	No PrEP. ART initiation for the infected partner when CD4 cell count fell below 200 cells/ml. In a separate scenario, expansion of eligibility criteria for ART initiation was included (below 350 CD4 cells/ml).	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: Always use PrEP after diagnosis partner. By timing: Up to partner's ART init; up to partner's ART init+1 y; during conception/pregnancya	Percent of the population using PrEP: see prioritisation
Williams [32]	No PrEP. The scale-up of ARV therapy was not modelled.	Vaginal gel, two doses pericoitally	PrEP used only by women	Percent of sex acts protected: High: 90%, Medium: 50%, Low: 25%
Walensky [31]	No PrEP. Patients identified as HIV infected received ART as per guidelines.	Vaginal gel, two doses pericoitally	PrEP used only by women. By age: ≤25 y (high inc. group)	Cohort-wide PrEP use continues until HIV infection or death.
Alistar [37]	No PrEP. 40% HIV infected patients received ART as per guidelines. ART efficacy: 95% reduction in transmission probability.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: general use; By sexual activity: groups of high number of partners and low condom use	Rate of recruitment into the program: 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%. Included a rate of dropout from PrEP.
Cremin [36]	ART efficacy: 96% reduction in transmission probability. Baseline scenarios varied: from status quo with current scale-up of ART to counterfactual including MC and ART scale-up. All scenarios included a 7/100 PY dropout rate while on ART.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: 15–54 y; By age: 15–24 y	Percent of the population group using PrEP: 40%, 80%
Concentrated epidemics among MSM in high-income countries
Desai [26]	No PrEP. The scale-up of ARV therapy was not modelled.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation—results not shown. Results for scenarios targeting high risk MSM only.	25% high riskb; (5.2% of all MSM)c; Discontinuation rate: 40% per year
Paltiel [34]	No PrEP. Patients identified as HIV infected received ART as per guidelines.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: all MSM. By age: <20 y.	Cohort-wide PrEP use continues until HIV infection or death.
Koppenhaver [29]	No PrEP. 25% of susceptible and undiagnosed MSM are tested per year, if eligible they start ART as per guidelines.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: all MSM.	100%
Juusola [35]	No PrEP. Patients identified as HIV infected received ART as per guidelines.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: all MSM; By sexual activity: high risk MSM.	100%, 50%, 20% of all MSM or those at high riskd
Concentrated epidemics among MSM in low- and middle-income countries
Gomez [27]	No PrEP. Patients identified as HIV infected received ART as per guidelines (CD4<200 cells/ml) to achieve 40% coverage.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: uniform coverage. By sexual activity: some and high prioritisation.	Low 5%; High 20%
Concentrated epidemics among PWID in low- and middle-income countries
Alistar [33]	No PrEP. Limited coverage of MMT and ART.	Once daily oral dosing	No prioritisation: all PWID: in all cases, MMT and PrEP are given only to PWID.	25%, 50% uninfected PWID. Included a rate of dropout from PrEP.

^aPeriod trying to conceive and while pregnant.

^bThe authors also considered a scenario of 2.5% coverage, but explored results for the 25% scenario.

^cDefined as those with more than five partners per y.

^dCoverage includes only people fully adherent to PrEP.

init, initiation; MC, male circumcision; MMT, methadone maintenance treatment; n/a, not applicable.