Table 1.

Bariatric Surgery Cohort Simulation Results

	Current Eligibility			Expanded Eligibility
	Baseline	Intervention	Effect	Baseline	Intervention	Effect
Disability free life expectancy	19.92	22.83	2.91	20.91	22.66	1.75
Life expectancy	28.80	30.35	1.55	28.79	29.87	1.08
Medical costs ($2010)
Medicare	136 737	133 489	−3 247	130 115	126 236	−3 879
Medicaid	54 749	54 474	−276	50 276	49 950	−326
Private Medical Cost	162 749	161 623	−1 126	157 815	156 058	−1 756
Total	354 234	349 585	−4 649	338 205	332 244	−5 961
Other fiscal outcomes ($2010)
Tax Revenue	82 585	84 451	1 866	81 255	82 319	1 065
SSI, DI, OASI	135 931	143 381	7 450	126 074	130 960	4 886
Earnings	239 436	243 544	4 107	237 469	239 797	2 327

Notes: averages from 1000 simulations of the projection for a cohort entering at age 50 in 2010. Real discount rate is 3%. All amounts in $2010 dollars. SSI = Supplemental Security Income, DI = Disability insurance, OASI = old-age social insurance. Private medical costs cover other costs not covered by Medicare and Medicaid (e.g. costs covered by employer). Please refer to text for definition of current and expanded eligibility.