Table 3.
Status Quo Population Estimates 2004–2050
| Year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2030 | 2050 | |||
| mean | (95% CI) | mean | (95% CI) | ||
| Population size (Million) | 80.8 | 121.5 | (120.5 to 122.2) | 146.8 | (145.9 to 147.8) |
| Population 65+ (Million) | 36.3 | 65.5 | (64.5 to 66.3) | 80.2 | (79.4 to 81.2) |
| Prevalence of selected conditions | |||||
| Obese 3 (BMI >=40) (%) | 3.9% | 10.4% | (10.0% to 10.9%) | 15.4% | (14.9% to 15.8%) |
| Obese 2 (35 <= BMI < 40)(%) | 6.3% | 12.9% | (12.3% to 13.4%) | 15.3% | (14.7% to 15.8%) |
| Obese 1 (30 <= BMI < 35)(%) | 17.9% | 24.8% | (24.2% to 25.6%) | 24.8% | (24.3% to 25.5%) |
| Overweight (25<=BMI<30) (%) | 38.2% | 30.7% | (29.8% to 31.4%) | 26.9% | (26.1% to 27.5%) |
| Diabetes | 17.1% | 28.2% | (27.6% to 28.9%) | 33.0% | (32.4% to 33.7%) |
| Heart disease | 23.3% | 30.0% | (29.2% to 30.7%) | 32.2% | (31.4% to 32.9%) |
| Hypertension | 51.2% | 62.9% | (62.2% to 3.6%) | 66.5% | (65.9% to 67.1%) |
| Public revenues from age 51+ ($bn) | |||||
| Federal personal income taxes | 237.5 | 293.7 | (282.2 to 304.8) | 367 | (358.2 to 377.5) |
| Social security payroll taxes | 81.2 | 103.4 | (100.7 to 105.9) | 126.8 | (124.6 to 129.3) |
| Medicare payroll taxes | 20.9 | 24.8 | (24.2 to 25.4) | 30 | (29.4 to 30.6) |
| Total Revenue | 339.6 | 421.9 | (407.1 to 435.8) | 523.7 | (512.5 to 536.6) |
| Public expenses from age 51+ ($bn) | |||||
| Old Age and Survivors Insurance benefits (OASI) | 448.8 | 1215.6 | (1195.3 to 1242.6) | 1698 | (1670.9 to 1727.2) |
| Disability Insurance benefits (DI) | 42.3 | 53 | (46.5 to 59.4) | 79.4 | (67.2 to 89.7) |
| Supplementary Security Income (SSI) | 14.7 | 36.3 | (34.5 to 38.3) | 59.6 | (57.1 to 62.2) |
| Medicare costs | 304.3 | 974.1 | (949.7 to 996.4) | 1511.4 | (1481.3 to 1542.7) |
| Medicaid costs | 127.3 | 328.4 | (309.3 to 346.0) | 593.3 | (568.5 to 625.2) |
| Medicare + Medicaid | 431.6 | 1302.5 | (1265.9 to 1332.5) | 2104.6 | (2058.9 to 2157.5) |
| Total Expenditures | 937.3 | 2607.3 | (2558.1 to 2651.2) | 3941.6 | (3878.5 to 4005.6) |
| Net Revenue | −597.8 | −2185.5 | (−2232.0 to −2137.7) | −3417.9 | (−3482.8 to −3354.7) |
| Total medical cost for age 51+ ($bn) | 986.4 | 2426.8 | (2381.1 to 2465.5) | 3707.2 | (3647.1 to 3772.0) |
Notes: Table reports the average of 100 simulations for population scenarios in the years 2004, 2030 and 2050. 95% confidence intervals based on simulations is reported for 2030 and 2050. Confidence intervals do not change much as we increase the number of replications.