Table 4.

Current Eligibility Population Estimates 2004–2050

	Relative Change to Status Quo		Absolute Change to Status Quo
	Year		Year
	2030	2050	2030	2050
Population size (Million)	0.4%	1.0%	0.47	1.51
Population 65+ (Million)	0.6%	1.8%	0.42	1.44
Prevalence of selected conditions
Obese 3 (BMI >=40) (%)	−73.6%	−76.1%	−0.08	−0.12
Obese 2 (35 <= BMI < 40)(%)	−43.0%	−45.2%	−0.06	−0.07
Obese 1 (30 <= BMI < 35)(%)	10.1%	20.8%	0.03	0.05
Overweight (25<=BMI<30) (%)	31.0%	45.0%	0.10	0.12
Diabetes	−5.4%	−7.5%	−0.02	−0.02
Heart disease	−1.6%	−2.2%	0.00	−0.01
Hypertension	−0.6%	−0.7%	0.00	0.00
Public revenues from age 51+ ($bn)			0.00	0.00
Federal personal income taxes	0.4%	0.5%	1.11	2.01
Social security payroll taxes	0.3%	0.5%	0.35	0.59
Medicare payroll taxes	0.3%	0.5%	0.08	0.14
Total Revenue Effect	0.4%	0.5%	1.54	2.73
Public expenses from age 51+ ($bn)
Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)	0.4%	1.3%	5.37	22.54
Disability Insurance benefits (DI)	−1.3%	−1.7%	−0.69	−1.36
Supplementary Security Income (SSI)	0.6%	1.8%	0.23	1.07
Medicare costs	−1.2%	−1.1%	−11.35	−16.27
Medicaid costs	−1.0%	−0.4%	−3.37	−2.31
Medicare + Medicaid	−1.1%	−0.9%	−14.72	−18.58
Total Expenditure Effect	−0.4%	0.1%	−9.82	3.67
Net revenue effect ($bn)	0.5%	0.0%	11.37	−0.94
Total medical cost for age 51+ ($bn)	−0.9%	−0.7%	−21.56	−24.80
Net social value ($bn)			63.3	245.7

Notes: Table reports the effect relative to status quo for the current eligibility scenario in 2030 and 2050. Both relative (%) and absolute ($) changes reported. The net revenue effect is defined as the change in total revenue minus the change in total public expenditures (excluding private medical expenditures). The net social value is defined in the text and takes account of the value of life extension.