Table 5.

Extended Eligibility Population Estimates 2004–2050

	Relative Change to Status Quo		Absolute Change to Status Quo
	Year		Year
	2030	2050	2030	2050
Population size (Million)	0.4%	1.2%	0.51	1.77
Population 65+ (Million)	0.7%	2.1%	0.47	1.71
Prevalence of selected conditions
Obese 3 (BMI >=40) (%)	−78.1%	−79.6%	−0.08	−0.12
Obese 2 (35 <= BMI < 40)(%)	−67.7%	−68.5%	−0.09	−0.10
Obese 1 (30 <= BMI < 35)(%)	−26.3%	−19.2%	−0.07	−0.05
Overweight (25<=BMI<30) (%)	33.4%	47.8%	0.10	0.13
Diabetes	−9.8%	−12.8%	−0.03	−0.04
Heart disease	−2.1%	−3.0%	−0.01	−0.01
Hypertension	−1.7%	−2.0%	−0.01	−0.01
Public revenues from age 51+ ($bn)
Federal personal income taxes	0.4%	0.6%	1.31	2.27
Social security payroll taxes	0.4%	0.5%	0.40	0.65
Medicare payroll taxes	0.4%	0.5%	0.09	0.15
Total Revenue Effect	0.4%	0.6%	1.80	3.07
Public expenses from age 51+ ($bn)
Old Age and Survivors Insurance benefits (OASI)	0.5%	1.6%	5.90	27.05
Disability Insurance benefits (DI)	−1.3%	−1.7%	−0.70	−1.36
Supplementary Security Income (SSI)	0.3%	1.6%	0.11	0.96
Medicare costs%	−1.8%	−1.9%	−17.65	−28.51
Medicaid costs%	−1.4%	−0.6%	−4.72	−3.67
Medicare + Medicaid	−1.7%	−1.5%	−22.37	−32.17
Total Exependiture Effect	−0.7%	−0.1%	−17.06	−5.53
Net Revenue Effect	0.9%	0.3%	18.86	8.60
Total medical cost for age 51+ ($bn)	−1.4%	−1.2%	−34.07	−45.02
Net social value ($bn)			53.5	283.7

Notes: Table reports the effect relative to status quo for the extended eligibility scenario. Both relative (%) and absolute ($) changes reported. The net fiscal effect is defined as the change in total revenue minus the change in total public expenditures (excluding private medical expenditures)