Table I.1.
Sensitivity Analysis Population Scenarios
| Baseline | High Medical Cost |
High Economic Growth |
50% Cure for Diabetes |
Census Mortality |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | 2030 | 2050 | ||
| Population size (Million) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | |
| Population 65+ (Million) | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | |
| Prevalence of selected conditions | |||||||||||
| Obese 3 (BMI >= 40) (%) | −7.7% | −11.7% | −7.7% | −11.7% | −7.7% | −11.7% | −7.7% | −11.7% | −7.6% | −11.6% | |
| Obese 2 (35 <= BMI 40)(%) | −5.6% | −6.9% | −5.6% | −6.9% | −5.6% | −6.9% | −5.5% | −6.9% | −5.5% | −6.9% | |
| Obese 1 (30 <= BMI <35)(%) | 2.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | |
| Overweight (25<= BMI<30) (%) | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | |
| Diabetes | −1.5% | −2.5% | −1.5% | −2.5% | −1.5% | −2.5% | −0.9% | −1.4% | −1.5% | −2.5% | |
| Heart disease | −0.5% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.7% | |
| Hypertension | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.4% | −0.5% | |
| Public revenues from age 51+ ($bn) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Federal personal income taxes | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.0 | |
| Social security payroll taxes | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
| Medicare payroll taxes | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Total Revenue Effect | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.8 | |
| Public expenses from age 51+ ($bn) | |||||||||||
| Old Age and Survivors Insurance benefits (OASI) | 5.4 | 22.5 | 5.4 | 22.9 | 5.6 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 19.9 | 5.1 | 22.4 | |
| Disability Insurance benefits (DI) | −0.7 | −1.4 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −0.8 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −1.4 | |
| Supplementary Security Income (SSI) | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | |
| Medicare costs | −11.4 | −16.3 | −12.0 | −18.8 | −11.3 | −16.3 | −8.3 | −9.9 | −12.1 | −20.0 | |
| Medicaid costs | −3.4 | −2.3 | −3.6 | −2.7 | −3.4 | −2.3 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −3.6 | −2.9 | |
| Medicare + Medicaid | −14.7 | −18.6 | −15.6 | −21.5 | −14.7 | −18.6 | −10.6 | −10.1 | −15.7 | −22.9 | |
| Total Expenditure Effect | −9.82 | 3.67 | −10.58 | 1.13 | −9.66 | 6.09 | −6.12 | 9.63 | −11.1 | −0.9 | |
| Net Revenue Effect | 11.37 | −0.94 | 12.14 | 1.64 | 11.26 | −3.04 | 7.56 | −7.12 | 12.6 | 3.6 | |
| Total medical costs for aged 51+ (Billion dollars) | −21.6 | −24.8 | −22.8 | −28.7 | −21.6 | −24.8 | −15.6 | −13.3 | −22.9 | −30.3 | |
| Net social value ($bn) | 63.3 | 245.7 | 46.1 | 196.2 | 63.4 | 244.5 | 58.6 | 243.9 | 65.1 | 251.4 | |