Trans-Arctic shipping |
Arctic |
High |
Increase |
High—shallow water, sensitive species, significant spill response challenges |
Seasonal reductions in Arctic ice cover open new shipping lanes |
Northern sea route (NSR) 35–60% shorter than Suez or Panama Canal from northern Europe to Asia |
11–13
|
Decreased shipping outside Arctic |
Temperate and tropic areas |
High |
Decrease |
Low—relative to total global vessel traffic |
Reduced sea ice opening Arctic sea to shipping |
Expect increased Arctic shipping to reduce traffic on existing routes |
|
Oil and mineral exploration and development |
Arctic coastal and offshore |
High |
Increase |
High |
Consequence of seasonal sea-ice reductions |
Arctic rich in coal and mineral deposits; oil/gas shipments via NSR projected to be 40 MT/year by 2020 |
11, 12, 60
|
Oil and mineral exploration and development |
Arctic inland |
High |
Decrease |
Locally high |
Shorter ice road season limits land-based development |
Shorter ice road season may make production difficult or uneconomical |
11, 60
|
Erosion |
Arctic watercourses and coastal |
Occurring |
Increase |
Locally high—Threatens existing fuel storage infrastructure, landfills, contaminated sites, drilling mud pits |
From increased storm energy, coastal rain, tidal surge, and sea-level rise; reductions in permafrost (soil stability) |
Average observed erosion rates at some locations equal or exceed 5 meters/year |
11, 13
|
Permafrost melt |
Arctic |
Occurring |
Increase |
Locally high—Releases from waste-disposal sites, sewage lagoons, landfills; increased spill risk |
Melting releases contaminants “contained” by ice; threat to cities, ports, and pipeline systems (especially Russia) |
Northern pipelines and oil infrastructure may experience frost heave, thaw settlement; in discontinuous permafrost slope stability may be affected |
13, 14, 60, 61
|
Increase in category 4 and 5 hurricane frequency; large-magnitude cyclones |
Temperate and tropics |
High |
Increase |
High—Hurricane Katrina: release of millions of gallons of oil; hundreds of hazardous materials releases reported |
Warmer ocean resulting in longer storm life and/or greater intensity |
Observed increase in proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes over 30-year period: modeling suggests warming may increase tropical cyclone destructiveness |
15–17
|
Increased intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events |
Tropics and high latitudes |
High |
Increase |
Locally high—Flooding may threaten infrastructure |
Sediment scour/deposition decreases reservoir life span, amplifying flood risks, possibly increasing risk of dam failure |
Threatened infrastructure includes pipelines, oil and chemical storage sites, industrial facilities, wastewater-treatment plants, and hazardous waste sites |
62–64
|
Decreased precipitation amount and/or seasonality |
Temperate and arid areas |
High |
Decrease |
Locally moderate to high |
Reduced flood risk in drought areas |
Uncertainty: arid areas may, however, experience flash flooding |
|
Sea-level rise |
Global: low-lying coastal areas |
High |
Increase |
Locally moderate to high |
While uncertainty exists, most sea-level modeling scenarios project increases |
Sea-level rise may inundate coastal contaminated sites, increasing risk to aquatic resources |
62 |
Increased number and intensity of wildfires |
Western United States, northern boreal forests, Australia |
Occurring |
Increase |
Locally moderate |
Wildfire incidence and/or intensity projected (or currently observed) to increase in some regions. |
Fires could potentially threaten oil and gas infrastructure, contaminated sites, and/or hazardous waste-storage sites, increasing spill risk |
18, 65, 66
|