Appendix Table 1.
Past Malpractice Verdicts as a Measure of Expected Malpractice Costs.
| Dependent Variable: Current Total Malpractice Payments Per Capita at year t | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | ||||
| Individual Lagged Malpractice Verdicts Per Capita | ||||||||
| Coefficients | ||||||||
| Year t-1 | 3.143*** (1.203) | 5.261*** (1.090) | ||||||
| Year t-2 | 3.752*** (1.055) | 5.216*** (1.003) | 6.132*** (1.147) | |||||
| Year t-3 | 3.261*** (1.235) | 5.145*** (1.179) | 5.398*** (1.150) | 6.167*** (1.236) | ||||
| Year t-4 | 1.277 (1.153) | 3.764*** (1.176) | 3.571*** (1.294) | 4.201*** (1.324) | ||||
| Year t-5 | 2.102 (1.546) | 5.746*** (1.646) | 5.063*** (1.611) | |||||
| Year t-6 | 3.934*** (1.395) | 7.485*** (1.562) | ||||||
| Testing for equality of coefficients | ||||||||
| F-statistic | 0.7482 | 0.0019 | 0.8278 | 0.7917 | 1.0682 | |||
| p-value | 0.5877 | 0.9981 | 0.4375 | 0.4536 | 0.3444 | |||
| Regression statistics | ||||||||
| R2 | 0.7436 | 0.7229 | 0.6998 | 0.6726 | 0.6605 | |||
| Moving Average of Lagged Verdicts Per Capita | ||||||||
| Coefficients | ||||||||
| Average of Lagged Trial Verdicts | 17.300*** (1.288) | 15.623*** (1.081) | 15.354*** (1.164) | 15.391*** (1.310) | 16.343*** (1.433) | |||
| Regression statistics | ||||||||
| R2 | 0.7375 | 0.7229 | 0.6957 | 0.6682 | 0.6550 | |||
| N | 508 | 661 | 610 | 559 | 508 | |||
Notes: The table illustrates the predicted relationship from regressions of per capita malpractice payments (from verdicts at trial and settlements) in the current year as the dependent variable against lagged values of per capita payments from trial verdicts as the independent variable. Each column represents a separate regression, including the indicated lags. The coefficients for the moving averages also come from separate regressions, with each moving average defined as the average of the lags included in the top part of the table in the same column. Data come from the National Practitioner Data Bank (NPDB) from years 1990-2005, aggregated to the state-year level. Robust standard errors are in parentheses.
A *** indicates statistical significance at the 1% level.