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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Clin Cancer Res. 2012 Sep 24;18(19):5471–5478. doi: 10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-12-1502

Table 5.

Comparison of outcomes of following active surveillance or immediate radical prostatectomy. Outcomes are based on 1 million simulated patients.

Immediate RP Active surveillance
Treated 100.00% 63.68%
 Treated with Gleason score ≤ 6 100.00% 40.69%
 Treated with Gleason score 7 0.00% 19.76%
 Treated with Gleason score ≥ 8 0.00% 3.23%

Time to treatment
 ≤ 3 years 27.75%
 > 3 years 35.93%

PSA at treatment (ng/mL)
 0–2.5 14.43% 14.55%
 2.51–4.0 14.05% 13.73%
 4.1–6.0 43.23% 30.09%
 6.1–10.0 28.29% 30.42%
 > 10.0 0.00% 11.21%

Cumulative incidence of recurrence from diagnosis
 20-year 24.54% 31.13%
 Lifetime 29.38% 37.61%

Cumulative incidence of prostate cancer death
 20-year 1.64% 2.78%
 Lifetime 2.00% 3.40%

Cumulative incidence of other cause death
 20-year 51.60% 51.13%
 Lifetime 98.00% 96.60%

Years of life per person from treatment 19.66 13.30
Total years of life per person from diagnosis 19.66 19.50
Years of life per person lost due to prostate cancer 0.25 0.40