Table 3.
Prediction of Risk for Alcohol Use Disorders (Abuse and/or Dependence) in the Cotwin and Parents from the Symptoms and Other Clinical Features of Alcohol Use Disorders in the Twin
| Criteria in twin | Odds ratio and 95%confidence intervals for prediction of alcohol abuse (AA) or dependence in cotwin (n = 1,829) |
Odds ratio and 95%confidence intervals for prediction of alcohol dependence (AD) in parent (n = 1,706) |
Odds ratio and 95%confidence intervals for prediction of AD in cotwin or parent (n = 1,804) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard analyses | Including total criterion counta |
Standard analyses |
Including total criterion counta |
Standard analyses | Including total criterion counta |
|
| Abuse #1—Failing obligations |
1.51# (1.24, 1.84) | 1.28† (1.04, 1.58) | 1.27† (1.03, 1.56) | 1.09 (0.88, 1.37) | 1.37* (1.15, 1.64) | 1.07 (0.88, 1.29) |
| Abuse #2—Hazardous use | 1.34† (1.09, 1.65) | 1.21 (0.98, 1.50) | 1.15 (0.92, 1.44) | 1.05 (0.84, 1.31) | 1.28† (1.06, 1.54) | 1.12 (0.93, 1.35) |
| Abuse #3—Legal problems | 1.67# (1.34, 2.08) | 1.50* (1.19, 1.88) | 1.55* (1.23, 1.95) | 1.42† (1.12, 1.80) | 1.78# (1.47, 2.16) | 1.55# (1.28, 1.88) |
| Abuse #4—Use despite social problems |
1.20 (0.99, 1.47) | 0.98 (0.79, 1.21) | 1.14 (0.93, 1.41) | 0.96 (0.77, 1.20) | 1.44# (1.20, 1.73) | 1.14 (0.94, 1.38) |
| Dependence #1—Tolerance | 1.31† (1.07, 1.60) | 1.01 (0.82, 1.26) | 1.08 (0.87, 1.33) | 0.91 (0.73, 1.13) | 1.29† (1.06, 1.56) | 1.02 (0.84, 1.24) |
| Dependence #2—Withdrawal | 1.23 (0.98, 1.54) | 0.74† (0.57, 0.95) | 1.28† (1.01, 1.62) | 1.00 (0.76, 1.31) | 1.41* (1.15, 1.74) | 0.94 (0.75, 1.19) |
| Dependence #3—Loss of control |
1.28† (1.01, 1.62) | 0.92 (0.71, 1.18) | 1.49† (1.15, 1.93) | 1.28 (0.98, 1.68) | 1.55* (1.23, 1.95) | 1.20 (0.95, 1.52) |
| Dependence #4—Trying to cut down |
1.15 (0.94, 1.41) | 0.85 (0.69, 1.06) | 1.16 (0.94, 1.44) | 0.99 (0.79, 1.24) | 1.37† (1.13, 1.65) | 1.08 (0.89, 1.32) |
| Dependence #5—Time spent |
1.59# (1.30, 1.94) | 1.14 (0.91, 1.43) | 1.42† (1.14, 1.76) | 1.20 (0.94, 1.53) | 1.55# (1.28, 1.88) | 1.15 (0.94, 1.42) |
| Dependence #6—Activities given up |
1.77# (1.39, 2.25) | 1.17 (0.89, 1.53) | 1.57* (1.23, 2.00) | 1.29 (0.97, 1.71) | 1.90# (1.53, 2.35) | 1.35† (1.07, 1.72) |
| Dependence #7—Use despite physical problems |
1.38† (1.00, 1.90) | 0.85 (0.61, 1.19) | 1.48† (1.08, 2.04) | 1.16 (0.82, 1.63) | 2.03# (1.54, 2.67) | 1.41† (1.06, 1.89) |
| Number of AA or AD symptoms |
1.13# (1.08, 1.18) | 1.10# (1.05, 1.15) | 1.16# (1.12, 1.20) | |||
| Treatment | 1.50† (1.18, 1.91) | 1.80# (1.40, 2.31) | 1.75# (1.41, 2.16) | |||
| Number of episodes | 0.98 (0.95, 1.01) | 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) | 1.01 (0.98, 1.03) | |||
| Age at onset (symptoms) | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) | |||
| Longest duration (years) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | |||
Control variables: sex of twin, sex of cotwin, zygosity of twins.
a
Additional control variable: number of endorsed AA or AD criteria (excluding prediction variable). Significance:
†
p ≤ 0.05,
‡
p ≤ 0.01,
*
p ≤ 0.001,
#
p ≤ 0.0001.