Table 3. Risk of progression to TB within two years after entry screening for TST ≥10 mm.
| Case source cohort | TB within two years* | Incidence of TBwithin two years per100.000 population | Expected TST positive at entry† | Estimated risk of progression toTB per 100.000 population‡ | ||
| N | N | N (%) | TST-positive | TST-negative | ||
| Overall | 26,317 | 30 | 114 | 11,173 (42) | 238 (151–343) | 19 (0–59) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 13,766 | 15 | 109 | 5,692 (41) | 233 (120–373) | 17 (0–57) |
| Male | 12,504 | 15 | 120 | 5,621 (45) | 241 (122–388) | 20 (0–66) |
| Age (yr) | ||||||
| 18–24 | 7,877 | 6 | 76 | 2,188 (28) | 237 (75–472) | 9 (0–36) |
| 25–34 | 12,797 | 16 | 125 | 6,189 (48) | 228 (122–364) | 22 (0–74) |
| ≥35 | 5,643 | 8 | 142 | 2,696 (48) | 258 (99–476) | 24 (0–89) |
| TB incidence in country of origin | ||||||
| <100 | 13,799 | 12 | 87 | 5,483 (40) | 193 (90–322) | 13 (0–46) |
| 100–199 | 7,231 | 12 | 166 | 3,041 (42) | 346 (163–581) | 26 (0–89) |
| ≥200 | 5,040 | 6 | 119 | 2,451 (49) | 212 (68–418) | 20 (0–79) |
TB: tuberculosis; TST: tuberculin skin test.
*
Based on surveillance data from the MSI & NTR.
†
Number estimated based on prevalence positive TST ≥10 mm in base cohort.
‡
Based on a median (95% CI) sensitivity for TST≥10 mm of 90% (72–100%).