Table 4. Risk of progression to TB within two years after entry screening for TST ≥15 mm.
| Case source cohort | TB within two years* | Incidence of TBwithin two years per100.000 population | Expected TST positive at entry† | Estimated risk of progression toTB per 100.000 population‡ | ||
| N | N | N (%) | TST-positive | TST-negative | ||
| Overall | 26,317 | 30 | 114 | 5,934 (23) | 295 (161–473) | 58 (25–103) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 13,766 | 15 | 109 | 3,088 (22) | 281 (130–492) | 55 (21–105) |
| Male | 12,504 | 15 | 120 | 2,840 (23) | 306 (139–538) | 61 (23–116) |
| Age (yr) | ||||||
| 18–24 | 7,877 | 6 | 76 | 875 (11) | 388 (108–830) | 33 (7–75) |
| 25–34 | 12,797 | 16 | 125 | 3,057 (24) | 257 (122–447) | 68 (26–130) |
| ≥35 | 5,643 | 8 | 142 | 1,402 (25) | 325 (114–643) | 72 (21–157) |
| TB incidence in country of origin | ||||||
| <100 | 13,799 | 12 | 87 | 2,650 (19) | 261 (110–475) | 42 (15–83) |
| 100–199 | 7,231 | 12 | 166 | 1,632 (23) | 423 (178–773) | 83 (30–166) |
| ≥200 | 5,040 | 6 | 119 | 1,483 (29) | 228 (64–486) | 64 (14–149) |
TB: tuberculosis; TST: tuberculin skin test.
*
Based on surveillance data from the MSI & NTR.
†
Number estimated based on prevalence positive TST ≥15 mm in base cohort.
‡
Based on a median (95% CI) sensitivity for TST≥15 mm of 59% (37–82%).