Table 5.
c-statistics for derivation and validation cohorts, stratified by outcome of prediction
| Parsimonious Model (95% CI) | Short Model (95% CI) | P Value (Short versus Parsimonious) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dialysis | |||
| Derivation cohort (HUP 2004–2010) | 0.89 (0.88–0.91) | 0.88 (0.87–0.89) | <0.001a |
| Validation (PAH 2006–2010) | 0.89 (0.85–0.93) | 0.89 (0.85–0.93) | 0.48 |
| Validation (PMC 2004–2010) | 0.89 (0.86–0.92) | 0.88 (0.85–0.91) | 0.23 |
| Death | |||
| Derivation cohort (HUP 2004–2010) | 0.83 (0.82–0.84) | 0.80 (0.79–0.81) | <0.001a |
| Validation (PAH 2006–2010) | 0.83 (0.80–0.86) | 0.79 (0.76–0.83) | <0.001 |
| Validation (PMC 2004–2010) | 0.82 (0.79–0.85) | 0.79 (0.75–0.82) | <0.001 |
| Dialysis or death | |||
| Derivation cohort (HUP 2004–2010) | 0.85 (0.84–0.86) | 0.82 (0.81–0.83) | <0.001a |
| Validation (PAH 2006–2010) | 0.83 (0.80–0.86) | 0.77 (0.73–0.80) | <0.001 |
| Validation (PMC 2004–2010) | 0.84 (0.82–0.86) | 0.80 (0.78–0.83) | <0.001 |
P value reflects difference in predictive ability between short and parsimonious models. CI, confidence interval; HUP, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania; PAH, Pennsylvania Hospital; PMC, Presbyterian Medical Center.
a
P values may be unreliable in cohort from which model was derived