Figure 1.

a–c. Predicted probabilities of recovery, dependence and death as a function of actual outcomes. The three-way predicted probabilities of recovery, dependence and death are shown for subjects who actually recovered (Fig. 1a), remained dependent (Fig. 1b) or died (Fig. 1c), such that the total predicted probability for each subject adds to 100 %. The predicted probability for each outcome may range from 0 % (base of triangle opposite the outcome of interest) to 100 % (corner of triangle for outcome of interest); the lines parallel to the base reflect predicted probabilities progressing from 10 % to 90 %. To determine a subject’s predicted probability of a given outcome, start at the base opposite the outcome (0 %) and count the number of parallel lines until the subject of interest is reached. For example, in Figure 1a, the predicted probabilities for the subject with the highest predicted probability of recovery (left corner) are 93 % recovery, 5 % dependent and 2 % death. In Figure 1b, the predicted probabilities for the subject with the highest predicted probability of dependence (top) are 72 % dependent, 21 % death and 7 % recovery. In Figure 1c, the predicted probabilities for the subject with the highest predicted probability of death (right corner) are 95 % death, 2 % recovery and 4 % dependence (numbers do not add to 100 % due to rounding).