Table 2.
Frequency, prevalence, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for predicting doctor behavior by individual and combined criteria for non-stable patients
| Gold Standard | Predictor | Predictor Statistics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frequency | Prevalence, % (95% CI) | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, % (95% CI) | PPV, % (95% CI) | NPV, % (95% CI) | ||
| Individual Criterion of Non-Stable Visits | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| ARV Change | Detectable Viral Load | 37,380 | 26.8 (26.5 – 27.0) | 31.1 (30.0 – 32.1) | 73.5 (73.2 – 73.7) | 6 (5.8 – 6.3) | 95.1 (95 – 95.3) |
| ARV Change | Weight change > 5% from previous visit | 25,914 | 18.6 (18.3 – 18.8) | 22.8 (21.8 – 23.8) | 81.7 (81.5 – 81.9) | 6.4 (6.1 – 6.7) | 95.1 (95 – 95.2) |
| ARV Change | Declining CD4+ count or low CD4+ count combined with undetectable viral load | 18,061 | 12.9 (12.8 – 13.1) | 13.3 (12.5 – 14.1) | 87.1 (86.9 – 87.3) | 5.3 (5 – 5.6) | 94.8 (94.7 – 95) |
| ARV Change | Comorbid Condition | 15,831 | 11.3 (11.2 – 11.5) | 73.9 (72.9 – 74.9) | 92.1 (91.9 – 92.2) | 33.7 (33 – 34.5) | 98.5 (98.4 – 98.5) |
| ARV Change | Recent Regimen Change (< 3 months) | 12,939 | 9.3 (9.1 – 9.4) | 4.4 (3.9 – 4.9) | 90.5 (90.3 – 90.6) | 2.4 (2.2 – 2.7) | 94.5 (94.4 – 94.7) |
| ARV Change | Currently Pregnant | 3,003 | 2.1 (2.1 – 2.2) | 4.0 (3.6 – 4.5) | 98.0(97.9 – 98.0) | 9.7 (8.7 – 10.8) | 94.9 (94.8 – 95) |
| ARV Change | ART Problem | 167 | 0.1 (0.1 - 0.1) | 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) | 99.9 (99.9 - 99.9) | 29.9 (23.1 – 37.5) | 94.9 (94.7 – 95) |
|
| |||||||
| Combined Criteria of Non-Stable Visits | |||||||
|
| |||||||
| ARV Change | Patient Not Stable | 79,540 | 56.9 (56.7 – 57.2) | 88.9 (88.2 – 89.7) | 44.8 (44.5 – 45.1) | 8.1 (7.9 – 8.3) | 98.7 (98.6 – 98.8) |
| Visit Less than 28 days | Patient Not Stable | 71,104 | 56.6 (56.3 – 56.9) | 72.6 (71.8 – 73.4) | 45.1 (44.8 – 45.4) | 12.1 (11.9 – 12.3) | 94.0 (93.8 – 94.2) |
| Visit Less than 14 days | Patient Not Stable | 71,104 | 56.6 (56.3 – 56.9) | 75.6 (74.0– 77.1) | 43.9 (43.6– 44.2) | 3.3 (3.2 – 3.4) | 98.6 (98.5 – 98.7) |
| ARV Change or Visit Less than 28 days | Patient Not Stable | 79,540 | 56.9 (56.7 – 57.2) | 77.6 (77 – 78.2) | 46.1 (45.8 – 46.4) | 17.4 (17.1 – 17.6) | 93.4 (93.2 – 93.6) |
| ARV Change or Visit Less than 14 days | Patient Not Stable | 79,540 | 56.9 (56.7 – 57.2) | 84.6 (83.9 – 85.3) | 45.2 (44.9 – 45.5) | 10.7 (10.5 – 10.9) | 97.4 (97.3 – 97.6) |