Table 4. ß-values (± se) of the models that included a weather variable with the highest support from the data.

	Dunnock	Blackbird	Reed Warbler	Blackcap	Chiffchaff	Willow Warbler	Reed Bunting
Model 1	AgeNAO: −1.370±0.3931	Age: −2.713±0.3431	AgeNAO: −0.788±0.3831	Age: −2.275±0.3121	Age: −1.433±0.2161	Age: −1.374±0.2251	Age: −1.374±0.1691
	NAOfy: −0.171±0.085	wtfy: 0.432±0.1681	NAOfy: 0.137±0.0621	pGzfy: −0.028±0.011	snfy: −0.255±0.0701	snfy: −0.154±0.0991	pSpfy: −0.011±0.0031
	NAOad: 0.163±0.1301	wtad: 0.430±0.3181	NAOad: 0.068±0.0911	pGzad: −0.029±0.020	snad: −0.247±0.1581	snad: −0.413±0.1801	pSpad: −0.007±0.0051
Model 2	Age: −1.716±0.3531	Age: −2.667±0.3451	Age: −0.673±0.3741	Age: −2.173±0.2971		Age: −1.496±0.2261
	wtfy: −0.304±0.171	snfy: −0.131±0.6721	pSpfy: −0.009±0.0051	pSpfy: −0.009±0.0041		pSpfy: 0.011±0.004
	wtad: 0.355±0.2581	snad: −0.839±0.3601	pSpad: −0.013±0.0091	pSpad: 0.014±0.010		pSpad: 0.003±0.008
Model 3	Age: −2.537±0.5761		Age: −0.493±0.4531			Age: −1.610±0.4021
	pSzfy: −0.002±0.005		pSzfy: 0.002±0.0031			Tfy: 0.037±<0.001
	pSzad: 0.003±0.0021		pSzad: 0.001±0.0011			Tad: 0.017±0.016
Model 4						Age: −1.942±0.3131
						pSzfy: −0.002±0.003
						pSzad: 0.002±0.0011

Shown are the ß-values for the factor age (negative values indicate a lower apparent survival probability of first year birds) and for the climate variable for both age classes (fy: first year birds, ad: adult birds) for the most parsimonious model (Model 1) of the species and for the models with a ΔAIC_C ≤2.0 (Models 2–4). The models are indicated by the variables that are used to estimate apparent survival. ¹: regression coefficients whose signs are consistent with a priori expectations. Note that we had no a priori expectations for the sign of the coefficient for the model including a constant trend in survival probability for the willow warbler.