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z-scores of shell-based ΔR values (this study; orange) and Gulf Stream transport estimates (ref. 1) (blue) are compared with the raw data used in the wintertime NAO reconstruction (ref. 14) (red). Shell ΔR values and Gulf Stream transport data were fit with a smoothing spline function (p parameter=0.0003) to highlight the low frequency evolution and coherence of these series.
