Table 1.
Parameter medians and 95% central credible intervals for the analysis of the Gamma data sets featuring an exponential decay intervention. Based on 10,000 realizations after burn-in each.
| Analysis | Data Set | Mixing (0.25) | Intervention (0.1) | Alpha (30) | Beta (1.604) | R0 (2.16) | Predicted Epidemic Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exp | 34 cases | 0.23 (0.14, 0.32) |
0.62 (0.07, 2.96) |
NA | NA | 1.83 (1.13,2.74) |
7 (1, 574) |
| Gamma | 34 cases | 0.20 (0.13, 0.28) |
0.12 (0.05, 0.22) |
29.78 (26.45, 33.17) |
1.54 (1.21, 1.91) |
1.69 (1.11,2.38) |
17 (1, 173) |
| Exp | 62 cases | 0.23 (0.16, 0.31) |
0.12 (0.04, 0.35) |
NA | NA | 1.85 (1.23,2.68) |
9 (1, 672) |
| Gamma | 62 cases | 0.21 (0.15, 0.28) |
0.07 (0.03, 0.11) |
29.73 (26.54, 33.23) |
1.64 (1.30, 1.97) |
1.79 (1.28, 2.39) |
26 (1, 242) |
| Exp | 122 cases | 0.26 (0.20, 0.34) |
0.12 (0.07, 0.22) |
NA | NA | 2.13 (1.59,2.87) |
36 (1, 1212) |
| Gamma | 122 cases | 0.26 (0.20, 0.32) |
0.10 (0.07,0.14) |
29.13 (25.93, 32.50) |
2.22 (1.39, 1.97) |
2.25 (1.76, 2.75) |
78 (1, 475) |
| Exp | 222 cases | 0.27 (0.22, 0.32) |
0.10 (0.07,0.15) |
NA | NA | 2.11 (1.68,2.61) |
43 (1, 1119) |
| Gamma | 222 cases | 0.27 (0.22, 0.31) |
0.10 (0.08, 0.13) |
28.81 (25.56, 32.16) |
1.57 (1.34, 1.82) |
2.28 (1.92, 2.70) |
84 (1, 424) |