Table 1.
The probability of finding a drug in year 1–5 according to model 1 and 3
| Cash-flow to discovery/year (million $) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | 0,5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Model 1 | 1 | 0,0350 | 0,0700 | 0,2100 |
| 2 | 0,0338 | 0,0651 | 0,1659 | |
| 3 | 0,0326 | 0,0605 | 0,1311 | |
| 4 | 0,0315 | 0,0563 | 0,1035 | |
| 5 | 0,0304 | 0,0524 | 0,0818 | |
| Model 3 | All | 0,0376 | 0,0809 | 0,3365 |
A probability rate P of 7 10-8 compounds/$ and a constant cash-flow to the discovery activities of $0.5 m, $1 m and $3 m per year has been used. In model 3, the probability weighted amount of drugs that may be found.