Table 5.
Multivariate transfer function modelsa
| Phenotype, model, and consumption of antimicrobial agent(s)b | Lag | ω (95% CI) | P value | α0 (95% CI) | %R | α (95% CI) | BIC | MSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34MRGN-PA | ||||||||
| Model 1 | 0.62 (0.22 to 1) | 4 | 0.78 (0.38–1.19) | 210.2 | 8 | |||
| Meropenem | 1 | 0.15 (0.015 to 0.29) | 0.03 | |||||
| Piperacillin-tazobactam | 0 | 0.03 (−0.09 to 0.15) | 0.61 | |||||
| ESC | 1 | 0.18 (−0.09 to 0.45) | 0.2 | |||||
| Model 2 | 0.5 (0.03 to 0.98) | 4 | 0.625 (0.15–1.1) | 213.1 | 7.9 | |||
| Meropenem | 1 | 0.13 (−0.02 to 0.28) | 0.086 | |||||
| Piperacillin-tazobactam | 0 | 0.02 (−0.1 to 0.14) | 0.76 | |||||
| ESC | 1 | 0.11 (−0.16 to 0.38) | 0.42 | |||||
| Cefepime | 0 | 0.22 (−0.2 to 0.65) | 0.3 | |||||
| XDR-PA | ||||||||
| Model 1 | 0.23 (−0.16 to 0.66) | 10 | 0.56 (0.16–0.96) | 187.8 | 4 | |||
| ESC | 0 | 0.15 (0.02 to 0.28) | 0.025 | |||||
| Cefepime | 0 | 0.25 (−0.02 to 0.52) | 0.067 | |||||
| Amoxicillin-clavulanate | 0 | 0.04 (−0.01 to 0.09) | 0.17 | |||||
| Model 2 | 0.54 (0.15 to 0.88) | 4 | 0.65 (0.27–1.02) | 187.8 | 4.4 | |||
| Cephalosporins | 0 | 0.03 (0.02 to 0.05) | <0.001 | |||||
| Amoxicillin-clavulanate | 0 | 0.05 (−0.003 to 0.05) | 0.072 |
a
Lag, time lag in quarters; ω, parameter estimate; α0, alpha value if the consumption level of 2008 held over 3 years without further reduction; %R, percentage of annual reduction over 3 years; α, alpha value regarding %R; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; MSE, mean squared error; XDR-PA, extensively drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa; 34MRGN-PA, three- and four-class-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa; ESC, expanded-spectrum cephalosporins.
b
The antimicrobial agent(s) shown in boldface type indicate that the agent(s) was significant and it was altered for intervention simulation and consecutive alpha calculation. The noise term was included as additional parameter if significant.