Table 3.
Pre- and Post-Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) PPACA Cost Impact (Billions) Scenario: Six States Decline to Take Expansion—FL, LA, MS, NE, SC, and TX
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-SCOTUS ruling | |||||||||||
| Individual federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $219.7 | $218.9 | $220.1 | $217.5 | $211.8 | $203.0 | $194.6 | $187.0 | |
| Medicaid | $105.4 | $108.9 | $143.8 | $149.4 | $155.6 | $163.3 | $171.1 | $179.3 | $187.9 | $196.6 | |
| Uninsured | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |||
| Group federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Take Medicaid coverage | $10.7 | $13.1 | $35.6 | $41.1 | $46.3 | $51.3 | $55.8 | $60.1 | $64.0 | $67.9 | |
| Refuse coverage | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Take individual coverage | $0.0 | $0.0 | $26.9 | $25.4 | $25.2 | $25.2 | $25.5 | $25.4 | $26.0 | $26.1 | |
| Total federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $246.6 | $244.2 | $245.3 | $242.7 | $237.3 | $228.5 | $220.6 | $213.1 | |
| Medicaid | $116.1 | $122.0 | $179.4 | $190.5 | $201.9 | $214.5 | $226.9 | $239.4 | $251.9 | $264.4 | |
| Uninsured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Total | $116.1 | $122.0 | $426.0 | $434.7 | $447.1 | $457.3 | $464.2 | $467.9 | $472.5 | $477.5 | |
| Post-SCOTUS ruling | |||||||||||
| Individual federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $236.0 | $236.0 | $237.3 | $237.4 | $237.7 | $227.6 | $214.4 | $202.1 | |
| Medicaid | $105.4 | $108.9 | $135.9 | $141.1 | $147.2 | $154.3 | $161.3 | $169.7 | $178.7 | $188.3 | |
| Uninsured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Group federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Take Medicaid coverage | $10.7 | $13.1 | $31.0 | $35.7 | $40.4 | $45.1 | $49.3 | $53.5 | $57.2 | $60.8 | |
| Refuse coverage | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Take individual coverage | $0.0 | $0.0 | $30.6 | $30.6 | $31.2 | $31.1 | $31.0 | $30.2 | $30.2 | $30.1 | |
| Total federal $$ | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $266.7 | $266.6 | $268.5 | $268.5 | $268.7 | $257.8 | $244.6 | $232.3 | |
| Medicaid | $116.1 | $122.0 | $166.9 | $176.8 | $187.6 | $199.4 | $210.6 | $223.1 | $235.9 | $249.1 | |
| Uninsured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Total | $116.1 | $122.0 | $433.6 | $443.5 | $456.0 | $467.9 | $479.4 | $480.9 | $480.5 | $481.3 | |
| Net impact | |||||||||||
| Insured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $20.1 | $22.4 | $23.2 | $25.8 | $31.4 | $29.3 | $24.0 | $19.2 | |
| Medicaid | $0.0 | $0.0 | $12.5 | $13.6 | −$14.3 | $15.2 | −$16.3 | $16.3 | $16.0 | $15.4 | |
| Uninsured | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | $0.0 | |
| Total | $0.0 | $0.0 | $7.5 | $8.8 | $8.9 | $10.6 | $15.1 | $13.0 | $8.0 | $3.8 | $75.8 |