. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Apr 17.

Published in final edited form as: Child Maltreat. 2010 Nov;15(4):271–281. doi: 10.1177/1077559510380738

Table 2.

Likelihood of a Subsequent Report of Maltreatment at Progressive Stages

	1st–2nd Reports (n = 6,365)	2nd–3rd Reports (n = 3,871)	3rd–4th Reports (n = 2,582)	4th–5th Reports (n = 1,804)

	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Child characteristics
White	1.01 [0.93, 1.1]	0.91 [0.79, 1.04]	1.09 [0.97, 1.23]	0.91 [0.78, 1.05]
Female	0.94 [0.88, 1.0]	0.93 [0.84, 1.04]	1.06 [0.96, 1.16]	0.99 [0.88, 1.11]
Age start of stage	0.97^a [0.96, 0.99]	1.02^b [1.00, 1.04]	1.03^a [1.01, 1.04]	1.03^b [1.01, 1.05]
Medical risk (infancy)	1.19^a [1.10, 1.31]	1.21^b [1.04, 1.40]	0.95 [0.84, 1.08]	0.99 [0.85, 1.16]
Parent characteristics
Age at child’s birth	1.01^b [1.0, 1.01]	1.01^a [1.0, 1.02]	1.01 [0.99, 1.01]	0.99 [0.99, 1.01]
Less than HS education	1.29^c [1.20, 1.39]	1.42^c [1.26, 1.60]	1.20^a [1.08, 1.33]	1.18^b [1.04, 1.35]
Hx foster care	1.13 [0.97, 1.31]	1.30 [0.99, 1.71]	1.43^a [1.18, 1.74]	1.22 [0.96, 1.57]
Never AFDC	0.48^c [0.41, 0.55]	0.73^b [0.56, 0.94]	0.53^c [0.43, 0.67]	0.66^b [0.50, 0.88]
Tract income	0.99^c [0.99, 0.99]	0.99 [0.99, 1.0]	0.99 [0.99, 1.00]	1.00 [0.99, 1.01]
Service prior to ever having a report for maltreatment
AFDC	0.87^b [0.76, 0.99]	0.94 [0.76, 1.16]	0.92 [0.78, 1.09]	0.92 [0.75, 1.02]
Parent MH Tx	1.43^c [1.26, 1.61]	1.10 [0.89, 1.35]	1.16 [0.98, 1.37]	1.00 [0.82, 1.22]
Special education	1.08 [0.94, 1.3]	0.82 [0.64,1.06]	0.81 [0.65, 1.01]	0.88 [0.67, 1.15]
Characteristics of 1st report in each stage
Neglect/Other
Physical abuse	0.85^c [0.79, 0.92]	1.02 [0.88, 1.17]	0.95 [0.84, 1.07]	0.88 [0.75, 1.13]
Sexual abuse	0.69^c [0.60, 0.79]	0.76 [0.57, 1.00]	0.85 [0.68, 1.06]	0.67^b [0.50, 0.91]
Mixed type	1.03 [0.87, 1.21]	1.28 [0.98, 1.65]	0.92 [0.74, 1.16]	0.93 [0.81, 1.41]
Other	n/a	1.04 [0.90, 1.20]	1.04 [0.90, 1.20]	0.84 [0.69, 1.01]
Substantiated	1.41^c [1.29, 1.55]	1.29^b [1.11, 1.51]	1.21^b [1.06, 1.39]	1.29^b [1.09, 1.53]
Family receptive	1.03 [0.96, 1.10]	1.01 [0.92, 1.12]	1.01 [0.92, 1.20]	0.98 [0.87, 1.11]
Child welfare services (during current stage)
FCS	0.50^c [0.45, 0.55]	0.62^c [0.53, 0.73]	0.42^c [0.36, 0.49]	0.55^c [0.46, 0.67]
FCS and IIS	0.74^a [0.60, 0.92]	0.74^b [0.56, 0.99]	0.55^a [0.42, 0.72]	0.69^b [0.52, 0.91]
Foster care	0.82^a [0.71, 0.95]	0.73^b [0.56, 0.95]	0.61^a [0.49, 0.76]	0.48^c [0.38, 0.61]
Prior child welfare services in Stage 1 (between 1st and 2nd reports)
FCS	n/a	0.73^a [0.62, 0.87]	0.60^c [0.50, 0.71]	0.62^c [0.48, 0.78]
FCS and IIS	n/a	0.71 [0.50, 1.0]	0.88 [0.62, 1.23]	0.53^b [0.33, 0.86]
Foster care	n/a	1.15 [0.89, 1.47]	1.04 [0.84, 1.28]	1.21 [0.93, 1.58]
Prior child welfare services in Stage 2 (between 2nd and 3rd reports)
FCS	n/a	n/a	0.59^c [0. 5, 0.71]	0.70^b [0.56, 0.87]
FCS and IIS	n/a	n/a	0.74 [0.54, 1.00]	0.46^a [0.30, 0.70]
Foster care	n/a	n/a	0.88 [0.68, 1.14]	0.80 [0.59, 1.10]
Prior child welfare services in Stage 3 (between 3rd and 4th Reports)
FCS	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.71^a [0.59, 0.86]
FCS and IIS	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.56^b [1.12-2.09]
Foster care	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.81 [0.61-1.09]
Other service during stage
Hospital Tx
Injury	1.14^a [1.07, 1.25]	1.19^b [1.02, 1.39]	1.12 [0.96, 1.30]	1.06 [0.86, 1.32]
Mental health	1.81^c [1.60, 2.05]	1.92^c [1.45, 2.52]	1.21 [0.99, 1.47]	2.05^c [1.61, 2.62]
Special education	0.43^c [0.38, 0.48]	0.53^c [0.44, 0.64]	0.91 [0.76, 1.09]	0.40^c [0.34, 0.51]
AFDC	1.12^b [1.0, 1.25)	0.86^b [0.75, 0.99]	0.87^b [0.77, 0.97]	0.88 [0.77, 1.02]
Parent MH Tx	0.65^c [0.55, 0.77]	0.47^c [0.36, 0.62]	0.47^c [0.37, 0.60]	0.25^c [0.19, 0.38]
Child MH Tx	0.65^a [0.50, 0.83]	0.55^a [0.37, 0.82]	0.52^c [0.37, 0.74]	0.51^a [0.35, 0.77]
Wald’s chi-square	1270, df = 45.2, p < .0001	243, df =3 0, p < .0001	378, df = 67, p < .0001	337, df = 92.5, p < .0001

Note. AFDC = aid to families with dependent children; HS = high school; MH = mental health; Tx = treatment; Hx = history; FCS = family-centered services; IIS = intensive in-home services.

.0001< p <.001.

.001< p <.05.

p <.0001.