Figure 6. Under the ‘weather linked Bd proliferation hypothesis’, chytridiomycosis dynamics are largely driven by pathogen proliferation (growth) under suitable climatic conditions.

This hypothesis predicts that modelled pathogen growth (GI_W, averaged over the 30 days prior to sampling; GI₃₀) should be positively related to a) disease prevalence in the population (R² = 0.247, F_1,39 = 12.79, p<0.001) (Prediction 3) and c) infection intensity of infected individuals (R² = 0.186, F_1,39 = 8.91, p = 0.005) (Prediction 1) because frogs are ectothermic growth media and disease/transmission dynamics will be dependent on the number of dispersing zoospores. This hypothesis thus also predicts that b) population prevalence should be positively related to infection intensity of infected individuals (R² = 0.284, F_1,39 = 15.49, p<0.001) (Prediction 2).