Figure 3. Probability of obtaining genetic differentiation (F_ST) values larger than those observed in the real data.

The panels in each row correspond to data simulated under the TP model (A, B, C), the S model (D, E, F) and the SDG model (G, H, I) (see Figure 2, for models definitions). Each column corresponds to a specific pairwise F_ST comparison, namely between HG and early farmers (A, D, G), HG and modern Europeans (B, E, H), and early farmers and modern Europeans (C, F, I). The x- and y-axis represent the values used for the female effective size N_N (at the onset of the Central European Neolithic 7,500 years ago) and N_UP (45,000 years ago), respectively. The colour key gives the probability of obtaining a F_ST value equal or greater than that observed. The white shaded area corresponds to parameter combinations for which this probability is greater than 0.05.