Table 2.
Incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma, gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, and combined events among patients with Barrett’s esophagus (BE)
| Characteristic | Patients, No. | Person-years of follow-up | High-grade dysplasia, No. | Esophageal adenocarcinoma, No. | Gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, No. | Incidence of esophageal cancer, % per year (95% Confidence Interval [CI]) | Incidence of cancer of esophagus and gastric cardia, % per year (95% CI) | Incidence of combined cancer or high-grade dysplasia, % per year (95% CI) | Combined events hazard ratio* (95% CI) |
| Total | 8522 | 59 784 | 36 | 79 | 16 | 0.13 (0.10 to 0.16) | 0.16 (0.13 to 0.20) | 0.22 (0.19 to 0.26) | NA |
| Sex | |||||||||
| Female | 3586 | 25 272.7 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 0.08 (0.05 to 0.12) | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.14) | 0.13 (0.09 to 0.18) | 1.00 (referent) |
| Male | 4936 | 34 493.3 | 27 | 60 | 11 | 0.17 (0.13 to 0.22) | 0.21 (0.17 to 0.26) | 0.28 (0.23 to 0.34) | 2.11 (1.41 to 3.16) |
| Age, y | |||||||||
| <50 | 2292 | 17 365.5 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0.05 (0.03 to 0.1) | 0.07 (0.04 to 0.12) | 0.12 (0.08 to 0.18) | 1.00 (referent) |
| 50–59 | 1882 | 13 894.3 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 0.14 (0.09 to 0.22) | 0.17 (0.11 to 0.25) | 0.22 (0.15 to 0.31) | 1.62 (0.92 to 2.85) |
| 60–69 | 1903 | 13 707.1 | 13 | 24 | 8 | 0.18 (0.12 to 0.27) | 0.23 (0.16 to 0.33) | 0.33 (0.25 to 0.44) | 2.43 (1.43 to 4.13) |
| 70–79 | 1649 | 10 810.9 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 0.19 (0.12 to 0.29) | 0.20 (0.13 to 0.30) | 0.26 (0.18 to 0.38) | 2.02 (1.13 to 3.63) |
| ≥80 | 796 | 4006.7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.15 (0.07 to 0.33) | 0.15 (0.07 to 0.33) | 0.17 (0.08 to 0.35) | 1.59 (0.67 to 3.82) |
| Specialized intestinal metaplasia at index biopsy | |||||||||
| Absent | 3179 | 23 416.5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.08) | 0.06 (0.04 to 0.10) | 0.07 (0.04 to 0.11) | 1.00 (referent) |
| Present | 3917 | 28 323.1 | 31 | 66 | 10 | 0.23 (0.18 to 0.29) | 0.27 (0.22 to 0.34) | 0.38 (0.31 to 0.46) | 3.54 (2.09 to 6.00) |
| Unknown | 1426 | 8045.0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.05 (0.02 to 0.13) | 0.07 (0.03 to 0.16) | 0.09 (0.04 to 0.18) | 1.05 (0.43 to 2.54) |
| Visible segment seen | |||||||||
| Unknown | 5060 | 38 502.4 | 17 | 53 | 11 | 0.14 (0.11 to 0.18) | 0.17 (0.13 to 0.22) | 0.21 (0.17 to 0.26) | 1.00 (referent) |
| Yes | 3462 | 21 282.1 | 19 | 26 | 5 | 0.12 (0.08 to 0.18) | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.21) | 0.23 (0.17 to 0.30) | 0.62 (0.36 to 1.07) |
| Length of BE segment | |||||||||
| Short | 681 | 4395.8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 (0.02 to 0.20) | 0.07 (0.02 to 0.20) | 0.11 (0.05 to 0.26) | 1.00 (referent) |
| Long | 947 | 6451.0 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 0.22 (0.13 to 0.37) | 0.26 (0.16 to 0.42) | 0.45 (0.31 to 0.65) | 2.31 (0.89 to 6.01) |
| Unknown | 6894 | 48 937.8 | 22 | 62 | 13 | 0.13 (0.10 to 0.17) | 0.15 (0.12 to 0.19) | 0.20 (0.16 to 0.24) | 1.08 (0.40 to 2.99) |
| Dysplasia at index biopsy | |||||||||
| No | 8128 | 56 989.7 | 26 | 58 | 14 | 0.10 (0.08 to 0.13) | 0.13 (0.10 to 0.16) | 0.17 (0.14 to 0.21) | 1.00 (referent) |
| Low grade | 323 | 2282.7 | 9 | 21 | 2 | 0.92 (0.60 to 1.40) | 1.01 (0.67 to 1.51) | 1.40 (0.99 to 1.97) | 5.67 (3.77 to 8.53) |
| Unknown | 71 | 512.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 (0.04 to 1.11) | 0.90 (0.13 to 6.49) |
| Well-defined BE† | |||||||||
| Total | 1990 | 12 322.8 | 16 | 22 | 3 | 0.18 (0.12 to 0.27) | 0.20 (0.14 to 0.30) | 0.33 (0.24 to 0.45) | NA |
*
Adjusted for sex, age category, index SIM status, presence of visible segment, length of BE and presence of index low-grade dysplasia.
†
Well-defined BE was defined as both the presence of SIM at index biopsy and a visible segment seen.