Table 3.
Age-Adjusted and Multivariable-Adjusted Relative Risks of Death from Smoking-Related Diseases among Men 55 to 85 Years of Age or Older in the Three Study Cohorts, According to Smoking Status.*
| Variable | Never Smoked | Current Smoker | Former Smoker† | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPS I Cohort (1959–1965) | CPS II Cohort (1982–1988) | Contemporary Cohort (2000–2010) | CPS I Cohort (1959–1965) | CPS II Cohort (1982–1988) | Contemporary Cohort (2000–2010) | CPS I Cohort (1959–1965) | CPS II Cohort (1982–1988) | Contemporary Cohort (2000–2010) | |
| Death from all causes | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 8244 | 8206 | 17,462 | 10,843 | 10,608 | 6920 | 3276 | 13,521 | 49,418 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 4,142.19 | 2,676.85‡ | 1,917.95‡ | 6,126.42 | 5,202.46‡ | 4,679.65‡ | 4,707.95 | 3,527.17‡ | 2,716.45‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.78 | 2.43 | 2.98 | 1.28 | 1.43 | 1.53 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.73–1.84 | 2.36–2.50 | 2.90–3.07 | 1.23–1.33 | 1.40–1.47 | 1.50–1.55 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.76 | 2.33 | 2.80 | 1.28 | 1.42 | 1.47 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.71–1.81 | 2.26–2.40 | 2.72–2.88 | 1.23–1.34 | 1.38–1.45 | 1.45–1.50 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Death from lung cancer | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 73 | 125 | 357 | 859 | 1887 | 1455 | 95 | 1146 | 4823 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 27.35 | 34.87 | 34.07 | 305.40 | 707.14‡ | 798.81 | 101.51 | 251.74‡ | 208.05‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12.49 | 25.30 | 27.32 | 3.50 | 7.60 | 7.13 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 9.80–15.92 | 21.10–30.34 | 24.30–30.70 | 2.58–4.76 | 6.32–9.15 | 6.40–7.94 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12.22 | 23.81 | 24.97 | 3.48 | 7.41 | 6.75 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 9.59–15.58 | 19.85–28.57 | 22.20–28.09 | 2.56–4.74 | 6.16–8.91 | 6.06–7.52 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Death from COPD | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 82 | 94 | 183 | 338 | 462 | 656 | 151 | 740 | 2639 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 39.42 | 33.72 | 18.56‡ | 227.64 | 318.24‡ | 497.62‡ | 168.23 | 209.27 | 138.57‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.61 | 10.50 | 28.97 | 5.78 | 6.96 | 7.62 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 4.38–7.20 | 8.39–13.13 | 24.55–34.19 | 4.40–7.59 | 5.61–8.62 | 6.56–8.85 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.52 | 9.98 | 25.61 | 5.75 | 6.77 | 7.05 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 4.30–7.08 | 7.97–12.49 | 21.68–30.25 | 4.37–7.55 | 5.46–8.40 | 6.07–8.19 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Death from ischemic heart disease¶ | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 3529 | 2731 | 3582 | 4711 | 2743 | 1286 | 1466 | 4106 | 9885 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 1,678.67 | 852.71‡ | 411.17‡ | 2,403.70 | 1,289.73‡ | 891.64‡ | 1,977.97 | 1,026.76‡ | 558.93‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.86 | 2.69 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.49 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.63–1.79 | 1.76–1.96 | 2.53–2.88 | 1.21–1.37 | 1.24–1.36 | 1.44–1.55 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.69 | 1.78 | 2.50 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.43 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.61–1.77 | 1.69–1.88 | 2.34–2.66 | 1.21–1.36 | 1.21–1.33 | 1.37–1.48 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Death from other heart disease¶ | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 635 | 911 | 1400 | 630 | 907 | 403 | 229 | 1225 | 3458 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 349.30 | 320.80 | 168.46‡ | 498.03 | 502.64 | 292.70‡ | 428.68 | 364.10 | 210.74‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.55 | 1.99 | 2.35 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.34 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.37–1.74 | 1.81–2.18 | 2.10–2.63 | 1.10–1.50 | 1.10–1.31 | 1.26–1.43 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.51 | 1.88 | 2.15 | 1.29 | 1.19 | 1.27 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.34–1.70 | 1.71–2.07 | 1.92–2.41 | 1.11–1.51 | 1.09–1.29 | 1.20–1.36 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Death from any stroke¶ | |||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| No. of deaths | 1083 | 558 | 1001 | 862 | 511 | 236 | 268 | 651 | 2194 |
|
| |||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 654.06 | 220.84‡ | 124.58‡ | 719.66 | 320.97‡ | 202.52‡ | 515.76 | 216.91‡ | 135.89‡ |
|
| |||||||||
| Age-adjusted RR | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.41 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 0.94 | 1.07 | 1.18 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.28–1.55 | 1.84–2.35 | 1.73–2.31 | 0.82–1.08 | 0.96–1.20 | 1.10–1.28 | |||
|
| |||||||||
| Multivariable-adjusted RR§ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.97 | 1.92 | 0.95 | 1.07 | 1.16 |
|
| |||||||||
| 95% CI | 1.26–1.52 | 1.74–2.23 | 1.66–2.21 | 0.83–1.09 | 0.95–1.20 | 1.07–1.25 | |||
Mortality was adjusted to the U.S. population standard for the year 2000, and relative risks were calculated with the use of age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models of the five most common diseases related to smoking.
This group consists of former smokers who quit more than 2 years before the survey date.
The age-standardized rate differed significantly from that for the immediately preceding time period.
Multivariable models were adjusted for exact age, race, and educational level.
The combined rates per 100,000 participants for the three cardiovascular disease categories (ischemic heart disease, other heart disease, and any type of stroke) in those who never smoked were 2682.03 in the CPS I cohort, 1394.35 in the CPS II cohort, and 704.21 in the contemporary cohort — a reduction of 74% from the 1959–1965 period to the contemporary period.