Table 1. Parameters for the rabies and CDV epidemic models in foxes.
parameter | symbol | Assumed values [reference] |
Ecology | ||
Fox carrying capacity | 1/km2 [28], [45]–[47] | |
per capita birth rate | 1/365 days [23] | |
per capita death rate | 1/730 days [23] | |
Rabies | ||
mean viral incubation period | 28 days [23] | |
mean duration of infection | 5 days [23] | |
transmission parameter | Estimated | |
Vaccination rate | v | Estimated |
CDV | ||
mean viral incubation period | 10 days [5]–[7], [48] | |
proportion of foxes that die from CDV | 0.5 [5], [50] | |
mean duration of infection (for foxes that will recover) | 10 days [7], [48] | |
mean duration of infection (for foxes that will not recover) | 10 days [7], [48], | |
transmission parameter | estimated | |
Bias in preferentially reporting/collecting CDV positive animals prior to the last quarter of 2009 | z | estimated |
Using a maximum likelihood approach, we estimated transmission, vaccination and bias parameters, given values of the other parameters drawn from the literature. These parameters clearly point at a higher virulence of rabies' virus both in term of case fatality and life expectancy once infectious.