Final regression model fitted to external validation datasets, ARIC/CHS (N=19,728, AUC=0.74)

Variable	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	P-value	Log (Odds Ratio)
Age in years*
<50	reference	---	---
50–59	1.4 (1.1–1.8)	0.0014	0.36
≥60	2.5 (2.0–3.1)	<0.0001	0.91
Sex
Female	reference	---	---
Male	1.8 (1.6–2.0)	<0.0001	0.57
Family history of diabetes
No	reference	---	---
Yes	1.9 (1.7–2.2)	< 0.0001	0.66
History of hypertension
No	reference	---	---
Yes	2.3 (2.0–2.6)	< 0.0001	0.83
Obesity**
Not overweight or obese	reference	---	---
Overweight	1.8(1.4–2.3)	< 0.0001	0.57
Obese	3.6 (2.9–4.5)	< 0.0001	1.28
Extremely obese	8.8 (6.2–12.4)	<0.0001	2.18
Physically active?
No	reference	---	---
Yes	0.8 (0.7–0.9)	0.0004	−0.23

^*Minimum age is 45 in ARIC/CHS.

^**if (BMI≥40 kg/m²) or (waist≥50 inches for male) or (waist≥49 inches for female) then extremely obese;

else if (30≤BMI<40) or (40≤waist<50 for male) or (35≤waist<49 for female) then obese;

else if (25≤BMI<30) or (37≤waist<40 for male) or (31.5≤waist<35 for female) then overweight;

else not overweight or obese.

ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUC = area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve; BMI = body mass index; CHS = Cardiovascular Health Study.