Table 2.

Results from a joint longitudinal-survival model, where the longitudinal model was a quadratic model and the survival model a Weibull model that included the random intercept, the random slopes before and after the change point, and the random change point as linking terms

	Joint model		Independent analysis
	Mean (SD)	95% credible interval	Mean (SD)	95% credible interval
Random effects model
Fixed effects
Memory performance	9.69 (0.57)	[8.57, 10.82]	9.86 (0.60)	[8.70, 11.02]
Baseline age	−0.30 (0.10)	[−0.51, −0.10]	−0.32 (0.10)	[−0.53, −0.11]
Education	0.52 (0.12)	[0.28, 0.76]	0.52 (0.12)	[0.28, 0.76]
Sex	0.32 (0.55)	[−0.77, 1.40]	0.20 (0.57)	[−0.91, 1.33]
Incident case	−3.52 (0.53)	[−4.52, −2.47]	−3.47 (0.52)	[−4.51, −2.43]
Rate of change	0.11 (0.47)	[−0.81, 1.03]	−0.11 (0.48)	[−1.04, 0.82]
Baseline age	0.01 (0.07)	[−0.14, 0.15]	0.00 (0.07)	[−0.14, 0.16]
Education	−0.07(0.408)	[−0.24, 0.09]	−0.08 (0.08)	[−0.2, 0.08]
Sex	0.22 (0.46)	[−0.68, 1.10]	0.31 (0.42)	[−0.51, 1.22]
Incident case	−0.60 (0.35)	[−1.29, 0.08]	−0.63 (0.34)	[−1.33, 0.01]
Change in rate of change	−0.15 (0.13)	[−0.42, 0.10]	−0.01 (0.12)	[−0.26, 0.23]
Baseline age	0.01 (0.01)	[−0.03, 0.04]	0.00 (0.01)	[−0.04, 0.04]
Education	−0.00 (0.02)	[−0.04, 0.04]	0.00 (0.02)	[−0.04, 0.04]
Sex	0.02 (0.12)	[−0.22, 0.27]	−0.04 (0.12)	[−0.27, 0.19]
Incident case	−0.03 (0.08)	[−0.20, 0.13]	−0.02 (0.08)	[−0.18, 0.14]
Random effects
Res. Variance intercept	3.15 (0.23)	[2.70, 3.63]	3.15 (0.23)	[2.70, 3.63]
Res. Variance random slope before change point	1.04 (0.20)	[0.69, 1.48]	1.04 (0.20)	[0.69, 1.48]
Res. Variance random slope before change point	0.31 (0.02)	[0.26, 0.37]	0.27 (0.02)	[0.22, 0.34]
Error	4.55 (0.02)	[3.57, 5.88]	4.54 (0.02)	[3.57, 5.88]
DIC	9488.0		9810.8
Survival model
Baseline risk (p)	3.72 (0.22)	[3.34, 4.23]	3.32 (0.10)	[3.11, 3.52]
Constant	−9.04 (0.54)	[−10.25, −8.11]	−8.13 (0.28)	[−8.70, −7.57]
Baseline age	−0.20 (0.02)	[−0.25, −0.15]	−0.17 (0.01)	[−0.20, −0.14]
Education	0.01 (0.02)	[−0.03, 0.06]	0.02 (0.01)	[−0.01, 0.05]
Sex	−0.47 (0.11)	[−0.70, −0.26]	−0.40 (0.08)	[−0.56, −0.21]
Incident case	0.37 (0.11)	[0.15, 0.59]	0.29 (0.09)	[0.11, 0.47]
Random effects intercept	−0.07 (0.02)	[−0.11, −0.01]
Random effects linear slope	−0.21 (0.13)	[−0.48, 0.05]
Random effects quadratic slope	−1.77 (0.68)	[−3.15, −0.44]