Table 7.

Sensitivity analysis results

Results	Year					Five-year results
	1	2	3	4	5
Unfavourable scenario
Avoided hospitalized pneumonias	785	3,749	8,690	14,925	21,993	50,141
Avoided outpatient pneumonias	528	2,520	5,841	10,033	14,784	33,707
Avoided primary bacteremias	21	102	208	398	503	1,232
Avoided empyemas	0	1	3	5	7	17
Avoided meningitis	7	34	69	131	166	406
Avoided bacteremic pneumonias	49	237	484	924	1,169	2,863
Avoided contagions	1,390	6,643	15,294	26,417	38,621	88,366
Hospitalized pneumonia cost savings	1,400,564	6,691,314	15,508,174	26,637,024	39,250,376	89,487,451
Outpatient pneumonia cost savings	118,698	567,092	1,314,325	2,257,501	3,326,488	7,584,104
Primary bacteremias cost savings	78,398	374,823	766,424	1,464,809	1,852,303	4,536,757
Empyemas cost savings	1,549	7,405	15,141	28,937	36,592	89,623
Meningitis cost savings	70,727	338,147	691,432	1,321,482	1,671,060	4,092,848
Bacteremic pneumonias cost savings	241,340	1,153,848	2,359,348	4,509,247	5,702,099	13,965,882
Savings by all cases averted	1,911,277	9,132,628	20,654,844	36,218,999	51,838,917	119,756,665
Cost of vaccinations	13,878,696	13,878,696	13,878,696	13,878,696	13,878,696	69,393,481
Net healthcare cost	11,967,420	4,746,068	−6,776,147	−22,340,303	−37,960,221	−50,363,184
Discounted net healthcare cost	11,967,420	4,520,065	−6,146,165	−19,298,394	−31,229,968	−40,187,043
Favourable scenario
Avoided hospitalized pneumonias	1,744	8,632	18,959	29,239	38,179	96,754
Avoided outpatient pneumonias	1,172	5,803	12,745	19,656	25,666	65,042
Avoided primary bacteremias	47	234	454	779	873	2,387
Avoided empyemas	1	3	6	11	12	32
Avoided meningitis	16	77	150	257	288	787
Avoided bacteremic pneumonias	110	545	1,055	1,811	2,029	5,550
Avoided contagions	3,090	15,294	33,369	51,753	67,047	170,552
Hospitalized pneumonia cost savings	3,804,001	18,829,047	41,355,130	63,780,008	83,280,575	211,048,761
Outpatient pneumonia cost savings	322,391	1,595,771	3,504,867	5,405,386	7,058,069	17,886,484
Primary bacteremias cost savings	212,934	1,054,733	2,043,798	3,507,357	3,930,174	10,748,996
Empyemas cost savings	4,206	20,836	40,375	69,287	77,640	212,345
Meningitis cost savings	192,099	951,530	1,843,818	3,164,172	3,545,617	9,697,236
Bacteremic pneumonias cost savings	655,491	3,246,874	6,291,595	10,769,994	12,098,587	33,089,542
Savings by all cases averted	5,191,122	25,698,792	55,079,583	86,723,204	109,990,663	282,683,364
Cost of vaccinations	18,504,928	18,504,928	18,504,928	18,504,928	18,504,928	92,524,641
Net healthcare cost	13,313,807	−7,193,863	−36,574,655	−68,218,276	−91,485,735	−190,158,723
Discounted net healthcare cost	13,313,807	−7,193,863	−36,574,655	−68,218,276	−91,485,735	−190,158,723