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. 2013 May 28;371(1991):20120287. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

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© 2013 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 1. — Temperature T_q is observed with likelihood q. If the temperature cdf is not changing with time (g is constant) then temperature T* is from the same distribution as temperature T_q, and is observed with likelihood q+dq. This is the path dg=0. If the temperature cdf is changing with time, due to change in g(t), then temperature T* is observed at time t₂ with the same likelihood q as temperature T_q was observed at t₁. This is the path dq=0. (Online version in colour.)