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. 2013 Apr 16;13:193. doi: 10.1186/1471-2407-13-193

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Impact of minor changes in proportion of patients with target in simulated trials: If a new therapy quintupled survival in patients with a particular target, the 668-patient simulated study was negative if the target was present in 15% of patients (HR=0.81, p=0.06) but was positive if the target was present in just 11 more patients (16.7%) (HR=0.79, p=0.04). Hence, very minor variations in study patient populations can determine whether a trial will be negative vs positive.