Table 4.
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis: Expected Change in Lifetime Cost and Prevalence of MC Procedure-Related Events and MC-Reduced Infections
| Variable | MC Rate, %
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 (Current) | 50 | 25 | 20 | 10 | 0 | |
| Lifetime direct medical costs | ||||||
| Men | ||||||
| Cost per individual, $a | 3310 | 3406 | 3490 | 3507 | 3541 | 3575 |
| Net increase, $b | 96 | 179 | 196 | 230 | 264 | |
| Increase in infection cost, $c | 181 | 337 | 368 | 432 | 495 | |
| Women | ||||||
| Cost per individual, $a | 222 | 241 | 257 | 261 | 267 | 273 |
| Net increase, $b | 19 | 35 | 39 | 45 | 51 | |
| Annual birth cohort, 4 milliond | ||||||
| Total cost, $, millionsa (95% CI) | 7188 (5146–9751) | 7422 (5247–10 160) | 7623 (5392–10 652) | 7664 (5425–10 696) | 7746 (5494–10 791) | 7829 (5499–10 961) |
| Net increase, $, millionsb | 233 | 435 | 476 | 558 | 640 | |
| Increase in infection cost, $, millionsc | 406 | 756 | 827 | 969 | 1110 | |
| Increase in lifetime cases of MC-reduced infections in annual birth cohortd | ||||||
| Male MC-reduced infections, entire birth cohort | ||||||
| HIV (% increase) | 2139 (5.3) | 4000 (10.0) | 4368 (10.9) | 5126 (12.8) | 5883 (14.7) | |
| HPV (% increase) | 23 757 (12.1) | 44 224 (22.6) | 48 378 (24.7) | 56 488 (28.9) | 64 696 (33.1) | |
| HSV-2 (% increase) | 53 286 (8.4) | 99 133 (15.7) | 108 342 (17.2) | 126 646 (20.1) | 144 969 (23.0) | |
| Infant UTI (% increase) | 11 416 (89.3) | 21 171 (165.5) | 23 147 (181.0) | 27 069 (211.7) | 30 888 (241.5) | |
| Female MC-reduced infections, entire birth cohort | ||||||
| HR-HPV (% increase) | 14 296 (7.9) | 26 527 (14.7) | 29 022 (16.0) | 33 894 (18.7) | 38 718 (21.4) | |
| LR-HPV (% increase) | 10 815 (5.4) | 20 102 (10.0) | 21 993 (11.0) | 25 707 (12.8) | 29 465 (14.7) | |
| BV (% increase) | 253 484 (24.0) | 466 880 (44.2) | 510 548 (48.3) | 599 042 (56.7) | 687 317 (65.1) | |
| Trichomoniasis (% increase) | 32 299 (25.6) | 60 065 (47.5) | 65 736 (52.0) | 76 925 (60.8) | 88 047 (69.6) | |
Abbreviations: See Table 3.
a
Cost includes lifetime direct medical expenses for all MC procedure-related events and MC-reduced infections.
b
Net increase in costs from MC procedure-related events (procedure and complications) and MC-reduced infections, under each “policy change” strategy to the “current context” MC rate=79% strategy.
c
Increase in costs due only to MC-reduced infections, comparing outcome under each “policy change” strategy to the “current context” MC rate=79% strategy.
d
Assumes a sex distribution of 0.51 (male)/0.49 (female).