Table 6.

Sensitivity Analyses of Mean Motor Vehicle Collision Events and Undiscounted Costs per Person for 30 year period age 60-89 for Current Practice (CP) compared to Earlier Surgery (ES)

	Case 1 - Mortality Rate Reduced by Half			Case 2 - Wider Thresholds			Case 3 - Surgery Expenditure $6,000			Case 4 - Better Initial ADVS distribution with 5.3% annual depreciation
	CP	ES	% difference	CP	ES	% difference	CP	ES	% difference	CP	ES	% difference
	Mean (sd)	Mean (sd)		Mean (sd)	Mean (sd)		Mean (sd)	Mean (sd)		Mean (sd)	Mean (sd)
Motor Vehicle Collisions	1.7204 (1.65)	1.3433 (1.42)	−21.9%	1.6398 (160)	1.0210 (1.19)	−37.7%	1.4615 (151)	1.1506 (130)	−21.3%	1.1436 (1.19)	0.9659 (1.09)	−15.5%
Fatalities	0.0037 (0.06)	0.0028 (0.05)	−23.2%	0.0039 (0.06)	0.0026 (0.05)	−34.2%	0.0032 (0.06)	0.0025 (0.05)	−22.4%	0.0025 (0.05)	0.0021 (0.05)	−14.7%
MVC Cost	$15,378 (83,745)	$11,989 (73,618)	−22.0%	$15,024 (84,975)	$9,538 (68,584)	−36.5%	$13,184 (78,236)	$10,367 (68,998)	−21.4%	$9,991 (67,167)	$8,440 (61,936)	−15.5%
Surgery Expenditure
age 60-64	$867 (991)	$1,269 (963)	46.4%	$522 (878)	$1,293 (956)	147.7%	$2,587 (2,971)	$3,790 (2,894)	46.5%	$504 (868)	$1,247 (969)	147.5%
Surgery Expenditure
age 65+	$314 (727)	$331 (743)	5.5%	$355 (764)	$425 (818)	19.5%	$721 (1,951)	$791 (2,029)	9.6%	$1,373 (928)	$681 (948)	−50.4%
Total Cost	$16,559 (83,690)	$13,590 (73,578)	−17.9%	$15,901 (84,935)	$11,255 (68,557)	−29.2%	$16,492 (78,152)	$14,948 (68,912)	−9.4%	$11,868 (67,147)	$10,368 (61,921)	−12.6%
QALY	18.3 (5.5)	19.2 (5.8)	5.1%	15.3 (6.1)	16.8 (6.6)	9.7%	15.7 (6.2)	16.4 (6.5)	5.0%	15.6 (6.2)	16.5 (6.5)	5.7%
Mean Age at Surgery	65.73 (9.0)	64.37 (8.2)	−2.1%	65.91 (8.4)	63.53 (7.0)	−3.6%	64.71 (8.3)	63.57 (7.3)	−1.8%	65.13 (17)	63.15 (16)	−3.0%
Probability of Surgery	0.59 (0.49)	0.80 (0.40)	35.5%	0.44 (0.50)	0.86 (0.35)	95.8%	0.55 (0.50)	0.76 (0.42)	38.5%	0.94 (0.24)	0.96 (0.19)	2.7%