Table 3.

Results of Multivariate Regression Analyses: Effect Sizes (in Odds Ratio) of Risk and Protective Variables Regarding Alcohol Use on Latent Trajectory Membership

Risk and protective variables	High (class 1,2) vs. low drinking (class 5,6)		High (class 1,2) vs. moderate drinking (class 3,4)		Persistent high drinking (class 1) vs. high but later reduced drinking (class 2)		Peak and decline (class 3,5) vs. gradual increase in drinking (class 4, 6)
	OR	p	OR	p	OR	p	OR	p
Genetic risk alcohol use disorder	1.41	0.007*	0.98	0.807	1.11	0.372	1.45	0.003*
Genetic risk externalizing disorder	1.33	0.118	1.06	0.680	1.27	0.191	1.15	0.444
Sensation seeking	0.83	0.220	1.35	0.043	1.26	0.218	0.72	0.052
Early trauma	0.53	0.115	0.71	0.418	0.75	0.568	0.38	0.039
Early peer deviance	1.30	0.074	1.58	0.002*	0.82	0.263	0.92	0.619
Late peer deviance	2.95	<0.001*	1.92	<0.001*	1.56	0.074	1.81	0.003*
ADHD	1.14	0.446	0.82	1.88	0.93	0.669	1.37	0.093
Low school performance	0.87	0.410	1.25	0.153	1.05	0.785	0.78	0.159
Neuroticism	0.94	0.685	0.90	0.450	1.13	0.472	0.84	0.261
Social church activities	0.73	0.044	1.05	0.778	0.85	0.390	0.78	0.164
Social regular activities	0.99	0.962	1.00	0.965	1.04	0.855	0.93	0.707
Negative parental attitude	1.09	0.560	1.00	0.974	0.90	0.521	1.14	0.423
Parental monitoring	0.71	0.049	0.89	0.439	1.10	0.619	0.80	0.228

OR, odds ratio; ADHD, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Analyses were weighted for the individual probability of class membership. Several contrasts were tested: the effects of the variables on being a member of (i) trajectories characterized by high compared with low level alcohol use, (ii) trajectories characterized by high compared with moderate level alcohol use, (iii) a trajectory characterized by persistence of high alcohol use compared with declining use over time, and (iv) trajectories characterized by a rapid increase compared with a slow increase toward the maximum level of alcohol use.

^*Significant following Bonferroni correction (4 tests = 1 × 4 contrasts).