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. 2013 Jun 6;10(83):20130194. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0194

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© 2013 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 7. — Effect of vaccination on R₀. (a) R₀ owing to vaccination as a function of the proportion of vaccinated horses and the reduction factor in the transmission rate. Parameters in the top-right region are expected to lead to the extinction of the epidemic. The initial value of R₀ for un-vaccinated horses is 2.6, which leads to a vaccination coverage (for a uniformly mixing host–vector population) greater than 100(1−1/2.6²) = 85% in order to block transmission. (b) Relative variation of R₀ when 100% of horses are vaccinated compared with R₀ in the absence of vaccinated horses as a function of the reduction in the host mortality rate and the reduction factor in the transmission rate. A sensible reduction in the host mortality rate might lead to an increase in R₀. (c) As in (b) but the mean duration of viraemia is assumed to be reduced by 50% as an additional effect of vaccination. Temperature 22.5°C, b = 0.7530, β = 2.7 × 10⁻², d_H = 0.4, 1/r_H = 6, , n_H = 4, unbiased feeding preference.

Inline graphic — Effect of vaccination on R₀. (a) R₀ owing to vaccination as a function of the proportion of vaccinated horses and the reduction factor in the transmission rate. Parameters in the top-right region are expected to lead to the extinction of the epidemic. The initial value of R₀ for un-vaccinated horses is 2.6, which leads to a vaccination coverage (for a uniformly mixing host–vector population) greater than 100(1−1/2.6²) = 85% in order to block transmission. (b) Relative variation of R₀ when 100% of horses are vaccinated compared with R₀ in the absence of vaccinated horses as a function of the reduction in the host mortality rate and the reduction factor in the transmission rate. A sensible reduction in the host mortality rate might lead to an increase in R₀. (c) As in (b) but the mean duration of viraemia is assumed to be reduced by 50% as an additional effect of vaccination. Temperature 22.5°C, b = 0.7530, β = 2.7 × 10⁻², d_H = 0.4, 1/r_H = 6, , n_H = 4, unbiased feeding preference.