Table 1. Population growth models and population loss estimates for Japan, 1903–1930 data*.

Estimate	Model
	1		2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Includes Kanto earthquake prefectures†	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No
Includes Hokkaido outlier	Yes		Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	No
Includes 1918 population count data	Yes		No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No
Intercept, γ00	13.6120‡		13.5957‡	13.6197‡	13.6040‡	13.5799‡	13.5623‡	13.5876‡	13.5706‡
	0.0524		0.0530	0.0530	0.0535	0.0534	0.0537	0.0541	0.0543
Time trend, γ10	0.0103‡		0.011‡	0.0095‡	0.0105‡	0.0098‡	0.0110‡	0.0089‡	0.0100‡
	0.0012		0.0012	0.0009	0.0008	0.0012	0.0012	0.0009	0.0008
Flu dummy, γ20	–0.0344‡		–0.0477‡	–0.0364‡	–0.0492‡	–0.0374‡	–0.0518‡	–0.0397‡	–0.0536‡
	0.0055		0.0070	0.0052	0.0069	0.0055	0.0067	0.0051	0.0067
Flu dummy × time trend, γ30	0.0006		–0.0004	0.0013§	0.0003	0.0002	–0.0010	0.0009	–0.0002
	0.0009		0.0010	0.0006	0.0007	0.0009	0.0010	0.0006	0.0006
No. observations	329		282	322	276	301	258	294	252
Hausman test statistic	<0.0001		<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001	<0.0001
	p>0.9999		p>0.9999	p>0.9999	p>0.9999	p>0.9999	p>0.9999	p>0.9999	p>0.9999
Breusch-Pagan test statistic	924.89		653.01	921.41	652.71	848.22	599.17	847.85	601.55
	p<0.0001		p<0.0001	p<0.0001	p<0.0001	p<0.0001	p<0.0001	p<0.0001	p<0.0001
Population change from influenza, millions	–1.38	–1.97		–1.50	–2.02	–1.48	–2.12	–1.61	–2.17
Population change from influenza, %	–2.53	–3.62		–2.87	–3.87	–3.15	–4.51	–3.59	–4.85
Population change, 1918–19, millions	–0.66	–1.21		–0.89	–1.38	–0.90	–1.49	–1.13	–1.65
Population change, 1918–19, %	–1.20	–2.19		–1.69	–2.60	–1.89	–3.13	–2.51	–3.65
Annual population growth rate to pandemic, %	1.03	1.13		0.95	1.05	0.98	1.10	0.89	1.00
Annual population growth rate after pandemic, %	1.09	1.09		1.08	1.08	1.00	1.00	0.98	0.98

*Italics indicate SE of the coefficient.
†Chiba, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Tokyo.
‡p<0.01.
§p<0.05.