Table 1.
Total mortality and excess mortality by delay in ART initiation, stratified by CD4 count at care entry
| CD4, cells/mm3 | Total: One year mortality risk (%) according to delay from clinic entry to ART initiation (95% uncertainty range) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excess: attributable mortality associated with delay (95% uncertainty range)
| ||||||
| 0 weeks | 6 weeks | 10 weeks | 26 weeks | 52 weeks | ||
| State-transition model for pre-ART cohort CD4 distribution | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| Whole Cohort (median CD4: 143) | Total | 11.0 (7.2, 15) | 13.2 (9.5, 17) | 14.7 (11, 18) | 19.7 (16, 23) | 24.2 (19, 29) |
| Excess | 0 | 2.2 (−3.2, 7.7) | 3.7 (−1.8, 9.1) | 8.6 (3.4, 14) | 13.0 (7.2, 19) | |
|
| ||||||
| Restricted to CD4 <150 cell/mm3 | Total | 15.5 (10, 21) | 18.8 (13, 24) | 20.8 (16, 26) | 27.7 (23, 32) | 34.2 (28, 40) |
| Excess | 0 | 3.3 (−4.3, 1.1) | 5.2 (−2.2, 13) | 12.1 (4.8, 19) | 18.6 (10, 27) | |
|
| ||||||
| State transition model for pre-ART CD4 strata at entry into clinic | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 300–350 | Total | 2.8 (1.7, 3.9) | 3.2 (1.9, 4.9) | 3.5 (2.0, 6.0) | 4.3 (2.1, 8.8) | 5.1 (1.5, 12) |
| Excess | 0 | 0.4 (−1.4, 2.3) | 0.7 (−1.6, 3.0) | 1.5 (−2.1, 5.2) | 2.3 (−3.7, 8.3) | |
|
| ||||||
| 250–299 | Total | 3.5 (2.2, 4.9) | 4.1 (2.6, 6.1) | 4.6 (2.7, 7.4) | 6.0 (3.2, 11) | 7.1 (2.3, 16) |
| Excess | 0 | 0.6 (−1.4, 2.3) | 1.1 (−1.5, 3.8) | 2.5 (−1.8, 6.8) | 3.6 (−3.2, 10.5) | |
|
| ||||||
| 200–249 | Total | 4.7 (2.8, 6.6) | 5.6 (3.7, 7.6) | 6.2 (4.2, 8.7) | 8.4 (5.2, 13) | 10.0 (5.0, 17) |
| Excess | 0 | 0.9 (−1.8, 3.6) | 1.5 (−1.4, 4.5) | 3.7 (−0.7, 8.1) | 5.2 (−1.2, 12) | |
|
| ||||||
| 150–199 | Total | 6.6 (4.1, 9.1) | 7.9 (5.3, 10) | 8.6 (5.9, 11) | 11.6 (8.1, 16) | 13.9 (9.0, 21) |
| Excess | 0 | 1.3 (−2.4, 4.9) | 2.0 (−1.8, 5.9) | 5.0 (0.37, 10) | 7.3 (1.0, 14) | |
|
| ||||||
| 100–149 | Total | 9.4 (5.5, 14) | 11.0 (7.6, 14) | 12.2 (8.8, 16) | 16.3 (12, 21) | 20.0 (14, 27) |
| Excess | 0 | 1.6 (−3.7, 6.9) | 2.8 (−2.6, 8.3) | 6.9 (1.0, 13) | 10.6 (2.9, 19) | |
|
| ||||||
| 50–99 | Total | 13.3 (8.4, 18) | 15.6 (10, 21) | 17.0 (12, 22) | 22.9 (17, 31) | 29.2 (21, 40) |
| Excess | 0 | 2.2 (−4.9, 9.3) | 3.7 (−3.3, 11) | 9.6 (1.1, 18) | 15.8 (5.2, 26) | |
|
| ||||||
| <50 | Total | 21.3 (14, 29) | 26.2 (19, 33) | 29.2 (22, 36) | 38.8 (33, 44) | 47.4 (39, 55) |
| Excess | 0 | 4.8 (−5.3, 15) | 7.8 (−2.1, 18) | 17.4 (7.9, 27) | 26.1 (15, 37) | |